The Dynamic Impact of Refugee Immigration on Native Workers

We study how low and medium-skilled refugee immigration affects natives’ labor market outcomes. Using individual-level panel data on the German workforce for 2011–2019 and exogenous regional variation from processing authorities’ distances, we find that a larger inflow of refugees to a district increases the probability of full-time employment for incumbent workers. Fewer outflows of employment drive this effect. The yearly estimates suggest positive labor demand responses in the short run—in occupations that supply services to the refugees—and positive labor supply effects in the medium run—in manufacturing occupations. Wages, job task composition, and job changes remain unaffected, though positive mobility responses are observed.

Gallegos Torres, Katia und Katrin Sommerfeld (2025), The Dynamic Impact of Refugee Immigration on Native Workers, ZEW Discussion Paper Nr. 25-058, Mannheim.