The authors analyse 149 newly compiled monthly time series on financial market stress conditions in the euro area. With the aid of a factor model they find different sources of financial stress that are important for selecting and preparing the appropriate policy response. The existence of a "Periphery Banking Crisis" factor, a "Stress" factor and a "Yield Curve" factor seems to explain the bulk of volatility in recent euro area financial sector data. Moreover, by a real-time forecasting exercise, the authors show that including additional factors—that reflect financial sector conditions—improves forecasts of economic activity at short horizons.

Kappler, Marcus und Frauke Schleer (2017), A Financially Stressed Euro Area, Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 11 (2017-6). Download

Schlagworte

Financial stress; dynamic factor models; financial crisis; euro area; forecasting