Stationary Bandits, State Capacity, and the Malthusian Transition: The Lasting Impact of the Taiping Rebellion

We examine the long-term regional development effects of the Taiping Rebellion (1850–1864), one of the deadliest civil wars in human history and a critical juncture in China’s path toward modernity. Our analysis shows that some areas under the control of the Taiping regime experienced important institutional changes, including stronger land property rights, greater local fiscal capacity, and enhanced social capacity. We find that these areas exhibit enduring development outcomes, reflected in higher economic activity, larger fiscal revenues, stronger civic norms, and lower mortality during the Great Famine (1959–1961).
The results suggest that violent conflicts have left lasting imprints on development by shaping local institutions in ways that influenced the evolution of property rights, fiscal capacity, and social cohesion, factors that could account for China’s enduring regional disparities.

Lai, Weizheng, Lixin Colin Xu and Li Yang (2026), Stationary Bandits, State Capacity, and the Malthusian Transition: The Lasting Impact of the Taiping Rebellion, Journal of Economic Growth