ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer) – Slightly Rising Prices and Increasing Transport Volumes

In view of the increasing optimism about the economic development, the transport industry assumes that transport volumes will grow in the coming six months. At the same time, they reckon that the strong oil price increases will diminish. Therefore, fewer experts expect price increases than in the previous quarter.

These are the findings of the current ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer), a quarterly survey among 300 top executives from the transport and loading industry, conducted by ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim.

According to the experts questioned in the second quarter of 2006, the attended increase in transport volumes will benefit the different transport branches and relations to a varying extent in the coming six months. The projections concerning the development of transport volumes for rail and domestic traffic are rather cautious. With regard to all other traffic branches – road freight, combined traffic, courier, express and package services (CEP), air and sea freight – experts either expect the volumes to further increase or remain on a constantly high level. However, the experts are less optimistic about air freight traffic on Asian/Pacific routes. On the one hand, 75 percent of the experts assume that transport volumes will grow. On the other hand, nine percent expect dropping volumes in the second quarter of 2006. The growth expectations for German (domestic) traffic and Western Europe traffic have, by now, reached a similar level since experts assess the domestic demand as stronger than before. Moreover, the experts predict that particularly the road transport volume will increase on Eastern European routes.

The experts’ estimations regarding price tendencies in the transport business for the coming six months depend on two main factors. On the one hand, experts expect a significant volume growth in individual transport branches and relations. On the other, they assume that oil prices and other cost factors will increase rather moderately. In the second quarter of 2006, the price cutting influences of competition in the transport business, mainly from new EU member states, are no longer as visible as they used to be. In the previous quarter, the trend of rising price expectations in all transport branches and relations had been falling, but in the second quarter of 2006, this tendency was partly reversed. The majority of experts expect increasing prices for road freight, air traffic, and sea traffic. However, the expected price increases for intercontinental traffic are only marginally higher than for the national or European relations. With regard to all other transport sectors – rail cargo, domestic shipping, combined traffic and CEP-services – experts now expect the prices to remain more constant or just slightly rise.

Contact

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone: +41/61/56035-10, E-mail: stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com

Dr. Georg Bühler, E-mail: buehler@zew.de

The ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer)

ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, survey 300 experts in the field of transport about the development of transport markets. The survey is being conducted every three months since 1998. The experts are asked to provide an outlook on the change in the transport volume and transport prices for the coming six months. In domestic and cross-border transport to Eastern and Western Europe, the following transport sectors are surveyed: road freight, rail cargo, domestic shipping, combined transport, and logistics services. Moreover, the experts assess the development in air and sea freight in Germany and other European countries en routes to North America and Asia-Pacific.