Latest Press Releases

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany recorded an increase in the current May 2022 survey, rising 6.7 points to a new reading of minus 34.3 points. The assessment of the economic situation in Germany has worsened again in the current survey. The corresponding indicator dropped 5.7 points to a new level of minus 36.5 points. This is the third decrease of the indicator since the start of the war in Ukraine. The expectations and assessments of the economic situation continue to point to a deterioration of the German economy during the next six months.

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The Volksbank Weinheim Stiftung and ZEW Mannheim have given the “Future of the Working World” research award 2021 to Dr. Jan Kinne. In his work, Kinne demonstrates that with the help of artificial intelligence (AI), company website contents can be evaluated online with high-frequency and in a fully automated manner. Currently, such searches are mainly done manually by specialised companies, i.e. by humans. He applies this method to analyse, for example, the innovation activity of companies and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on businesses.

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The US Federal Reserve continues its monetary policy change. The Fed raises its key interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, twice as much as the first rate hike in March, to a current range between 0.75 and 1.0 per cent. In addition, the central bank has announced that it will start reducing its balance sheet in June. Professor Friedrich Heinemann, head of the Research Department “Corporate Taxation and Public Finance” at ZEW Mannheim, has commented on this matter:

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Due to demographic change, Germany is increasingly developing into a so-called “gerontocracy”. A reform lowering the voting age to 16 is supposed to counteract this. A recent study by ZEW Mannheim examines the question of whether such a reform is ambitious enough to anchor future-oriented interests more strongly in current politics. The study suggests that lowering the voting age does little to change a central limitation of democracy: If voters care only about their narrow interests, then policies will tend to be strongly shaped by the present and, in this case, an ageing society. Intergenerational altruism among voters should be encouraged and more investments should be made to improve voters’ education about long-term policy challenges.

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Germany heavily depends on workers from other EU countries. As a result of the EU’s free movement of workers, the number of immigrant workers has more than quadrupled: in 2020, 1.3 million Eastern Europeans were working in Germany subject to social insurance contributions. Mainly, they worked in the postal and warehousing sectors, as drivers and in cleaning. Most of them pay into the German social security system, while employment as mini-jobbers and postings play an increasingly minor role among Eastern Europeans. In addition, Eastern Europeans work disproportionately often in occupational fields with a shortage of skilled workers, which is why they tend to contribute to relieving the tight German labour market. This is the result of a recent expert brief by ZEW Mannheim, which looks at the consequences of the free movement of workers from Central and Eastern Europe for the German labour market.

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The Federal Statistical Office published its preliminary results on the development of the German inflation rate in April 2022. According to the calculations, the inflation rate measured by the German consumer price index recorded a slight increase to 7.4 per cent. Professor Friedrich Heinemann, head of the Research Department “Corporate Taxation and Public Finance” at ZEW Mannheim, has commented on this matter:

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German economic growth has stalled – and is expected to proceed at a sluggish pace in the coming years. According to the financial market experts surveyed by ZEW, lower but stable annual growth rates of between 2.0 and 2.5 per cent are anticipated in 2022 to 2024. Several factors will act as a drag on German GDP, including high energy prices, raw material shortages, and supply chain disruptions – as well as the new geopolitical situation that has arisen with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The majority of experts have made downward revisions to their GDP growth forecasts for 2022, 2023 and beyond. With a view to the next five years, individual sectors of the German economy will be affected to varying degrees by geopolitical developments, with the greatest impacts being suffered by vehicle manufacturing, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, steel and non-ferrous metals, and mechanical engineering.

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The ECB Governing Council has still not specified a date for a first interest rate hike. Despite record inflation in the eurozone, the deposit facility rate remains negative. Professor Friedrich Heinemann, head of the Research Department “Corporate Taxation and Public Finance” at ZEW Mannheim, has commented on this matter:

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More than 4.6 million Ukrainians have fled the country since the start of the war. As a result of the invasion, more and more people are also fleeing from Russia. Reasons for this range from the restricted freedom of expression, fear of political persecution or being drafted into military service, to poor economic prospects following the unprecedented level of sanctions on Russia. What is different with current Russian migrants fleeing to neighbouring countries compared to Ukrainian migrants, is that there are indications that the economically active population is over-represented among the Russian emigrants. This may include specialists in the IT and other creative sectors of the economy, who have international language skills as well as customers.

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The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany recorded a decline in the current April 2022 survey, falling 1.7 points to a new reading of minus 41.0 points. The assessment of the economic situation in Germany has again worsened significantly in the current survey. The corresponding indicator dropped 9.4 points to a level of minus 30.8 points. This is the second time the indicator has recorded a decrease since the start of the war in Ukraine. The expectations and assessments of the economic situation are currently similar to those at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Inflation expectations for Germany have fallen by 43.4 points in the current survey to a new value of 26.8 points.

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