Latest Press Releases

The plans of the ‘traffic light coalition’, named after the parties’ traditional colours, to increase the minimum wage and introduce a basic child allowance (Kindergrundsicherung) will have a positive financial impact, especially for low-wage earners. Both measures will lead to higher incomes for up to ten million Germans, according to calculations by ZEW Mannheim on behalf of Süddeutsche Zeitung. The calculations are based on the economic model ZEW-EviSTA and data of the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).

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The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany decreased in the current December 2021 survey, falling 1.8 points to a new reading of 29.9 points. The assessment of the economic situation in Germany has worsened again in the current survey. The corresponding indicator dropped 19.9 points to a level of minus 7.4 points. This is the first time since June 2021 that the situation indicator has been in negative territory again. Compared to the previous month, the outlook for economic development in the next six months has deteriorated considerably.

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As of July 2022, Professor Nicolas Ziebarth will head the Research Department “Labour Markets and Human Resources” at ZEW Mannheim. The role as research department head is linked to a professorship in the Department of Economics at the University of Mannheim. Ziebarth is an economist at the renowned Cornell University in the US, where he has been studying the interaction of (social) insurance systems with labour markets and population health for more than ten years. His primary research interests are sick pay, reduced earning capacity pension, job security and undeclared work.

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About one in four students in Germany drops out of a bachelor’s programme and about one in six drops out of a master’s programme. Although many of those affected start vocational training after dropping out, the time spent at university has negative financial consequences both for the tax authorities and for the dropouts themselves, according to a recent study by ZEW Mannheim. On the one hand, dropping out becomes a negative business for public budgets: Compared to high school graduates who go straight into vocational training, the government expenditure for dropouts exceeds the expected income from taxes and other levies over the following 40 years of their working lives. On the other hand, dropouts face a negative individual return on education compared to the reference group.

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The Federal Statistical Office published its preliminary results on the development of the German inflation rate in November 2021. According to the calculations, the inflation rate measured by the German consumer price index rose further to 5.2 per cent compared to the previous month. Professor Friedrich Heinemann, head of the Research Department “Corporate Taxation and Public Finance” at ZEW Mannheim, comments on this matter:

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Civic engagement in Germany has played an important role in the integration of migrants since autumn 2015. Migrants living in regions with active volunteer groups have had more frequent contact with Germans, have better German language skills and higher life satisfaction. These are the results of a recent study by ZEW Mannheim.

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The currently very high consumer price inflation rates in the euro area are expected to gradually decline over the next two years, but are projected to remain well above the ECB’s target of two per cent over this period. Disruptions in international supply chains, raw material shortages and high energy prices are expected to become less important drivers of inflation by 2023. On the other hand, the relevance of wage growth in the euro area for the experts’ inflation expectations has increased significantly compared to previous surveys, especially for the year 2022.

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The German Federal Ministry of Finance’s Working Party on Tax Revenue Estimates presented the results of its new analysis today. According to the announced results, tax revenues will recover much faster from the pandemic in the coming years than previously assumed.

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Germany and Europe are lacking digital sovereignty. This jeopardises the ability of the German economy and its European partners to respond effectively to future challenges, to innovate and to remain competitive. This is the result of a study by ZEW Mannheim, which is based on a comprehensive evaluation of the existing literature and a representative company survey. On behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, ZEW researchers surveyed more than 1,200 companies from the information economy and manufacturing industry.

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European companies will be obliged to disclose their country-related profits and income taxes in the form of so-called country-by-country reporting in the future. A corresponding draft directive was approved today by the Parliament of the European Union. The aim of the directive is to detect and curb tax avoidance practices. The announcement of a preliminary political agreement on 1 June 2021 to introduce such a directive had already led to noticeable reactions on the capital market: A current study by ZEW Mannheim, in cooperation with the University of Mannheim, identified cumulative average abnormal returns between ‑0.499 and ‑0.699 per cent for up to two days after the announcement. This corresponds to a cumulative loss in firm value of 48 to 65 billion euros.

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