ZEW Financial Market Survey

ZEW Financial Market Survey

Period: 01.12.1991 – 31.12.2030

The ZEW Financial Market Survey has been carried out on a monthly basis since December 1991. It reveals the financial market’s expectations on the development of important international economies. Currently these are Germany, the euro area, the United States of America as well as China.

The panel of participants consists of about 350 analysts from banks, insurance companies and large industrial corporations. These analysts work in the respective companies’ departments of finance, research, and macroeconomics, as well as in the departments of investment and securities. The majority of the analysts is from Germany.

The analysts are asked about their expectations on a six-month horizon in the following specific areas: trend in economic activity, inflation rate, short-term and long-term interest rates, stock indices and exchange rates. Furthermore, financial market experts are to assess the profit situation of 13 German industry branches. The survey consists of two parts: one fixed survey part and special surveys on current issues.

The experts’ expectations on the future economic development in Germany serve as a basis to calculate the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment. This leading indicator for the economic trend (ZEW Index) is followed closely by the public. Moreover, ZEW communicates the survey’s detailed results in the monthly “ZEW Financial Market Report”.

Further information on the ZEW Financial Market Test is available here

An overview of academic papers using data from the financial market survey is available here

Project members

Michael Schröder

Michael Schröder

Coordinator
Senior Researcher

To the profile
Peter Buchmann

Peter Buchmann

Technischer Mitarbeiter

To the profile
Frank Brückbauer

Frank Brückbauer

Advanced Researcher

To the profile
Thibault Cézanne

Thibault Cézanne

Researcher

To the profile

Selected Publications

Deaves, Richard, Michael Schröder, Adam Stivers and Ming Tsang (2021), Do economic forecasters believe the stock market is efficient? Evidence from Germany, Applied Finance Letters 10 , 40-47

Seip, Knut, Yunus Yilmas and Michael Schröder (2019), Comparing sentiment and behavioral based leading indexes for industrial production: When does each fail?, Economies - Open Access Journal 7 (4)

Deaves, Richard, Jin Lei and Michael Schröder (2019), Forecaster Overconfidence and Market Survey Performance, Journal of Behavioral Finance 20 (2) , 173-194

Mokinski, Frieder, Xuguang (Simon) Sheng and Jingyun Yang (2015), Journal of Forecasting DOI: 10.1002/for.2340

Dick, Christian and Lukas Menkhoff (2013), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 37 (7) , 1362-1383

Schmidt, Sandra and Dieter Nautz (2012), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 44 , 323-340

Schmeling, Mail and Andreas Schrimpf (2011), European Economic Review 55 , 702-719

Deaves, Richard, Erik Lüders and Michael Schröder (2010), Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 75 , 402-412

Menkhoff, Lukas, Rafael Rebitzky and Michael Schröder (2009), Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 70 , 241-252

Ullrich, Katrin (2008), North American Journal of Economics and Finance 19 (1) , 93-108

Menkhoff, Lukas, Rafael Rebitzky and Michael Schröder (2008), Applied Economics 40 , 261-270

Heinemann, Friedrich and Katrin Ullrich (2006), Open Economies Review 17 , 175-195

Schröder, Michael and Martin Schüler (2006), Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik Bd. 7, Heft 1 , 43-66

Franz, Wolfgang (2005), German Economic Review, Vol. 6, Issue 2 , 131-153

Hüfner, Felix and Michael Schröder (2002), Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik Vol. 222/3 , 316-336

Schröder, Michael and Robert Dornau (2001), Applied Financial Economics 12 , 535-543

Contact

Senior Researcher, Dr. Michael Schröder
Telefon +49 (0)621 1235-368
Technical employee, Peter Buchmann
Telefon +49 0621 1235-165
Advanced Researcher, Dr. Frank Brückbauer
Telefon + 49 (0)621 1235-148
Researcher, Thibault Cézanne
Telefon +49 (0)621 1235-287