ZEW Financial Market Survey
ZEW Financial Market Survey
The ZEW Financial Market Survey has been carried out on a monthly basis since December 1991. It reveals the financial market’s expectations on the development of important international economies. Currently these are Germany, the euro area, the United States of America as well as China.
The panel of participants consists of about 350 analysts from banks, insurance companies and large industrial corporations. These analysts work in the respective companies’ departments of finance, research, and macroeconomics, as well as in the departments of investment and securities. The majority of the analysts is from Germany.
The analysts are asked about their expectations on a six-month horizon in the following specific areas: trend in economic activity, inflation rate, short-term and long-term interest rates, stock indices and exchange rates. Furthermore, financial market experts are to assess the profit situation of 13 German industry branches. The survey consists of two parts: one fixed survey part and special surveys on current issues.
The experts’ expectations on the future economic development in Germany serve as a basis to calculate the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment. This leading indicator for the economic trend (ZEW Index) is followed closely by the public. Moreover, ZEW communicates the survey’s detailed results in the monthly “ZEW Financial Market Report”.
Further information on the ZEW Financial Market Test is available here
An overview of academic papers using data from the financial market survey is available here
Deaves, Richard, Michael Schröder, Adam Stivers and Ming Tsang (2021), Do economic forecasters believe the stock market is efficient? Evidence from Germany, Applied Finance Letters 10 , 40-47
Seip, Knut, Yunus Yilmas and Michael Schröder (2019), Comparing sentiment and behavioral based leading indexes for industrial production: When does each fail?, Economies - Open Access Journal 7 (4)
Deaves, Richard, Jin Lei and Michael Schröder (2019), Forecaster Overconfidence and Market Survey Performance, Journal of Behavioral Finance 20 (2) , 173-194
Mokinski, Frieder, Xuguang (Simon) Sheng and Jingyun Yang (2015), Journal of Forecasting DOI: 10.1002/for.2340
Dick, Christian and Lukas Menkhoff (2013), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 37 (7) , 1362-1383
Schmidt, Sandra and Dieter Nautz (2012), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 44 , 323-340
Schmeling, Mail and Andreas Schrimpf (2011), European Economic Review 55 , 702-719
Deaves, Richard, Erik Lüders and Michael Schröder (2010), Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 75 , 402-412
Menkhoff, Lukas, Rafael Rebitzky and Michael Schröder (2009), Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 70 , 241-252
Ullrich, Katrin (2008), North American Journal of Economics and Finance 19 (1) , 93-108
Menkhoff, Lukas, Rafael Rebitzky and Michael Schröder (2008), Applied Economics 40 , 261-270
Franz, Wolfgang (2005), German Economic Review, Vol. 6, Issue 2 , 131-153
Schröder, Michael and Robert Dornau (2001), Applied Financial Economics 12 , 535-543