ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer) - First Scope of Price Rise in German Transport

The decline in transport due to the economy seems to be over in most sectors of German transport. First signs for an increasing demand in transport were already noticed this summer. This trend is continuing. Prices in transport are going to be more or less stable in the coming six months. Prices are influenced by partly contrary factors: the fuel price has been relatively stable since December 2008 and therefore has not increased the price in transport. In contrast, the increasing transport volume opens up some scopes for price rises in markets, in which, until now, there were overcapacities due to the economic crisis and therefore strong competition. These are the findings of the ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer) in the fourth quarter 2009. ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, survey about 300 experts in the field of transport.

In the current survey of the fourth quarter 2009, the development for the coming six months in road freight, logistics services, and "traditional" rail cargo is estimated rather optimistically. However, the experts were more reluctant with their assessment regarding combined transport and particularly domestic shipping. Air freight and ocean shipping are viewed with most optimism. Regarding individual transport connections, cross-border transport receives better results again, especially intercontinental transport.

The experts expect mainly stable prices for the coming six months. If there are changes, the experts tend to expect a price rise. Road freight transport and logistics services are considered to have mainly stable or slowly increasing prices. Rail cargo and combined transport are expected to mostly have stable or irregular price developments. The greatest insecurity concerning the future price development is in domestic shipping. There is a clear signal for an increase in prices for air and sea freight.

For further information please contact

Martin Achtnicht (ZEW), Phone: +49/621/1235-208, E-mail: achtnicht@zew.de

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone: +41/61/56035-10, E-Mail: stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com

The ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer)

ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, survey 300 experts in the field of transport about the development of transport markets. The survey is being conducted every three months since 1998. The experts are asked to provide an outlook on the change in the transport volume and transport prices for the coming six months. In domestic and cross-border transport to Eastern and Western Europe, the following transport sectors are surveyed: road freight, rail cargo, domestic shipping, combined transport, and logistics services. Moreover, the experts assess the development in air and sea freight in Germany and other European countries en routes to North America and Asia-Pacific.