ZEW Indicator Strongly Rises at Beginning of Year

In January 2026, expectations about Germany’s economic situation are increasing strongly. The indicator has climbed to plus 59.6 points and is thus plus 13.8 points above the previous month’s reading. The assessment of the current economic situation has also improved. The situation indicator for Germany is at minus 72.7 points, which means it is plus 8.3 points above the value recorded in the previous month.

“The ZEW Index is rising strongly. 2026 could mark a turning point. However, despite the positive economic sentiment, work should continue to strengthen the attractiveness of the location in order to enable sustainable growth,” comments ZEW President Achim Wambach, PhD, on the current results.

Despite the announcement of additional tariffs by the US last weekend, export-oriented industries are experiencing, in some cases, significant improvements. In particular, the balances of the steel and metal industry as well as of the mechanical engineering have increased by 18.2 and 22.7 points, respectively. The balance for the automotive industry rose by 16.5 points to minus 5.5 points. The balances for the chemical and pharmaceutical industries and electrical engineering have also improved by 12.4 and 14.0 points, respectively. These results are in line with the figures for industrial production in November 2025, which turned out significantly better than expected and a surprisingly strong increase in orders. In addition, the Mercosur agreement is likely to have improved the outlook for export-intensive industries. However, the unpredictable US trade policy continues to be an additional burden on the German export economy.

The expectations for the eurozone are also rising and currently lie at plus 40.8 points, which means plus 7.1 points compared to the previous month’s value. The assessment of the situation is also improving. At minus 18.1 points, it is up plus 10.4 points above the previous month’s reading.