Publications of the Research Unit Pensions and Sustainable Financial Markets

This article addresses one of the drawbacks of survey-based measures of expectations, the fact that updates are relatively infrequent, due to the monthly or quarterly frequency of survey waves. To obtain a more…

• Economic Outlook Slightly Brighter but Remains Negative Overall
• Growth Supported by Private Consumption and Investment
• New Five-Year Plan: Expected to Bring Improvements for German Companies too; Continuing Urgend…

We propose a Bayesian shrinkage approach for vector autoregressions (VARs) that uses short-term survey forecasts as an additional source of information about model parameters. In particular, we augment the…

• Konjunkturausblick trübt sich ein
• Eurozone: Rückgang der Inflationserwartungen
• USA: Starker Dollar und niedriger Ölpreis belasten Konjunkturausblick
• Japan: Ölpreisrückgang verbessert die Wirtschaftslage in Japan
• Gro…

• Turbulent Start to New Year Dims Growth Outlook
• International Financial Market Data - Assessments and Expectations
• No Further Interest-Rate Cuts Expected in Europe
• Inflation in Europe Expected to Normalise
• Share-Pri…

• Konjunkturelle Zuversicht steigt
• Eurozone: Inflationserwartungen legen erneut zu
• USA: Konjunkturerwartungen weitgehend unverändert
• Japan: Einschätzung der Konjunkturlage leicht verbessert
• Großbritannien:…

• Economic Outlook Expectations Have Brightened Again
• International Financial Market Data - Assessments and Expectations
• Divergent Short-Term Interest Rates Expected
• Swiss Franc Expected to Hold Steady Against the…