ECB Transparency Monitor
The ECB Transparency Monitor, run by ZEW Mannheim, analyses the European Central Bank’s monetary policy from an independent academic perspective. It brings together key economic and fiscal data on the current monetary policy environment and enables the communications of the members of the Governing Council to be systematically compared. The project is supported by the Geld und Währung Foundation.
A key component is the Opinion Score, published quarterly. This AI-based indicator evaluates recent public statements by members of the Governing Council at six-week intervals and assesses whether their communications point more towards a restrictive (‘hawkish’) or expansionary (‘dovish’) monetary policy stance. The indicator thus provides early indications of how the consensus within the ECB Governing Council is evolving.
Issues
The escalation of the Iran conflict in early 2026 injected significant uncertainty into the global inflation outlook. Energy-price increases and supply-chain disruptions reignited concerns about second-round inflation effects in the euro area, drawing comparisons to the post-pandemic commodity shock of 2021–22. Over the spring and early summer of 2026, these pressures were reflected in a pronounced hawkish turn in Governing Council communication, followed by a significant moderation in July partly as a consequence of the greater growth pessimism of early summer. The most recent weeks have seen disappointed hopes of falling energy prices and, at the same time, positive growth surprises for the euro area. Against this backdrop, this report assesses the prospects for the ECB’s monetary policy decisions through the lens of how Council members are communicating. Using an AI-based text classification of individual speeches, the ECB-ZEW Momentum Indicator tracks whether the tone of the Governing Council is shifting toward tighter or looser policy. This edition summarises the key findings from the most recent data update up until August 27, 2026.