ECB Monitor Quarterly Report Q2 2026

The escalation of the Iran conflict in early 2026 has injected significant uncertainty into the global inflation outlook. Energy price increases and supply-chain disruptions have reignited concerns about second-round inflation effects in the euro area, drawing comparisons to the post-pandemic commodity shock of 2021–22. Against this backdrop, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank faces a delicate balancing act at its next monetary policy meeting on June 11, 2026: holding the deposit rate at 2%, cutting further to support a slowing economy, or raising interest to prevent potential uncontrolled inflation. To assess how council members are communicating ahead of this decision, the ZEW ECB Monitor tracks the tone of individual speeches using an AI-based text classification approach. This report summarises the key findings from the most recent data update.