ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) - Economic Expectations for the CEE Region Remain Stable

In October 2013 economic expectations for Central and Eastern Europe including Turkey (CEE) remained stable. The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for the CEE region has decreased by 1.1 points and now stands at a level of 34.6 points.

Among the individual CEE countries, almost all indicators except those for Romania and Turkey have decreased slightly and lost some of the previous month’s gains. Growing by 18.3 points, the indicator for Romania showed by far the highest increase. The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe reflects the financial market experts’ expectations for the CEE region on a six-month time horizon. The indicator has been compiled on a monthly basis together with further financial market data by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim with the support of Erste Group Bank, Vienna, since 2007.

The experts' assessment of the current economic situation for the CEE region improved in double-digits in October. The respective indicator increased by 11.0 points from the almost balanced 0.1 mark.

Information about further indicators of the CEE region, the Eurozone, individual CEE countries covered by the analysis, or Austria can be found in the table at the bottom of the press release. The answers of all survey participants are taken into account for the calculation of the indicators for the CEE region, the Eurozone and Turkey. The answers of the Turkish survey participants are not taken into account for the calculation of the indicators for individual CEE countries and Austria, because their high participation share in the survey could cause significant biases in the survey results.

For further information please contact

Zwetelina Iliewa, Phone +49 621/1235-346, E-mail iliewa@zew.de

Survey Procedure and Methodology

The Financial Market Survey CEE is a survey carried out among financial market experts by the Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim (ZEW) and Erste Group Bank AG, Vienna. The target of this survey is to develop indicators describing the economic conditions in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as well as in Austria.

The CEE region observed in the survey consists of Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and, since October 2010, Turkey.

The financial experts are questioned on their evaluations of the current business situation, the medium-term prospects of the respective economies and their expectations as to the development of the inflation rate, the short- and long-term interest rates, exchange rates and stock prices on a six-month time horizon. The analysts’ assessments reflect the qualitative direction of the estimated changes. The quarterly ‘Financial Market Report CEE’ contains the results for every Central and Eastern European country in detail.