“The economic outlook for Germany is positive. This is reflected, among other things, in the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment, which recorded an increase again in February. Positive signals can also be discerned when looking at the global economy. The export markets are booming. The experts we interview in our monthly survey on China assess the economic outlook for this country, which is so important for the German economy in terms of exports, as considerably better than in January. In the USA, strong economic growth is also expected in 2021 due to President Biden’s economic stimulus package.
In view of these positive signals, however, we must avoid stumbling into a third wave of the pandemic. We are already facing a significant insolvency gap. Estimates by ZEW show that, in fact, about 25,000 additional companies would have filed for insolvency in the current economic situation. The aid provided by the federal and state governments, as well as the suspension of the obligation to file for insolvency due to COVID-19, have prevented this from happening. It can be assumed that after the aid programmes expire, a large number of mostly small companies with fewer than ten employees will exit the market.”