It is also worth noting that the assessment of the economic situation has again improved considerably, just as in the previous month. The Index now stands at 3.1 points, which corresponds to a rise of 13.9 points compared to the previous month.
The surveyed experts expect the consumer price inflation to increase significantly, to 2.2 per cent. This can be attributed to the overall strong economic growth, an expected further considerable increase in the money supply (M2), as well as to an expected significant depreciation of the yuan to a new ratio of 6.99 yuan per US dollar. The increase in the inflation rate in turn leads to a rise in interest rate expectations. Lending rates are expected to hit a value of 4.3 per cent by October 2017.
According to the surveyed experts, domestic consumption – so far the main driver of growth in the Chinese economy – is expected to decrease. With a value of 18.4 points, however, the corresponding balance continues to be well in the positive range. The decrease in expectations on domestic consumption goes hand in hand with a shift in expectations concerning the employment rate, which is expected to decline.
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