Economic Expectations for China Once Again Show Considerable Improvement
China Economic Panel
In the most recent survey for October (29/09/2017–17/10/2017) expectations regarding the economic climate in China rose considerably, with the index climbing 9.0 points to a current level of 17.3 points (compared to 8.3 points in September). The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has thus once again come in well above the long-term average of 5.3 points.
The assessment of the current economic situation has also improved and currently stands at 26.9 points. This corresponds to an increase of 1.9 points compared to the previous month. This is once again the highest value recorded since the survey began.
While the economic expectations for China, when viewed on their own, seem to be fairly volatile around the average, the assessment of the current economic situation has shown a clear upwards trend from January 2016 onwards. “When viewed together, we can see that the outlook for the next twelve months has significantly improved – and just in time for the Chinese Communist party’s national congress,” says Dr. Michael Schröder, senior researcher in the ZEW Research Department “International Finance and Financial Management” and project leader for the CEP survey.
Looking at the individual sectors of the Chinese economy, the ICT (65 points), insurance (57.5 points), services (55 points) and electronics (54.8 points) sectors scored the highest. Trailing at the bottom of the leader board, however, are the automotive industry (33.3 points), the energy sector (32.5 points) and construction (23.8 points).
The sectors which saw the strongest growth compared to the previous month were retail and investment banking and the insurance industry.
It is notable that the overall positive economic climate has had an impact on almost all the various sectors and regions of the Chinese economy.
For further information please contact
Dr. Michael Schröder, Phone: +49 (0)621/1235-368, michael.schroeder@zew.de