Trump’s Policy Is a Reason for Growing Concerns Among Businesses
ResearchRepresentative ZEW Survey About US Administration
An increasing number of companies in Germany fear that the presidency by Donald Trump will have a negative impact on the German economy. This is a finding of a recent representative survey conducted by ZEW Mannheim researchers from mid-March to mid-April. Around 800 Germany-based companies in the information economy and manufacturing sector participated in the survey.
“Over 80 per cent of German companies in the information economy and the manufacturing sector expect the presidency by Donald Trump to have a negative impact on the performance of the German economy,” comments Dr. Daniel Erdsiek, who led the survey carried out by the ZEW Research Unit “Digital Economy”. “This shows that concerns among companies have continued to increase since our last survey in December 2024. In particular, the share of companies that expect very negative effects from the new US administration has risen to over 20 per percent. Less than ten per cent of companies expect positive effects on the performance of the German economy.”
In the December survey, 75 per cent stated that they were expecting negative impacts, of which 15 percentage points represented expectations of very negative effects. Click here for the results of the December survey.
Impact on own company and sector expected
A growing number of companies are also pessimistic about the future performance of their own company or sector. In the information economy, 40 per cent of businesses expect a negative impact of Trump’s presidency on their own performance – the share has therefore doubled since December (20 per cent). Negative expectations about the performance of one’s own sector have increased to 44 per cent in the information economy. These proportions are even higher in the manufacturing sector: 46 per cent of the respondents expect negative effects on their own performance and 64 per cent foresee negative impacts on the performance of their sector.
Assessments of how the change of administration in the US will affect business also depend on a company’s exporting activities: Companies that export to the US are more exposed to its tariff plans. For example, 50 per cent of the manufacturing companies that export to the US believe that the Trump presidency will have a negative impact on their performance. However, the share of companies expecting negative effects although they do not export to the US is quite high as well (42 per cent).
Mechanical engineering and vehicle manufacturing industries particularly worried
“An analysis based on the industry affiliation of the companies surveyed shows that firms in the mechanical engineering and vehicle manufacturing sectors in particular fear negative effects on their own success. In both sectors, more than half of the companies expect negative or even very negative effects,” explains Erdsiek.
The information and communication technologies (ICT) sector, the chemical and pharmaceutical companies and other manufacturing industries follow at a considerable distance. Among the sectors surveyed, media service providers have the lowest proportion of companies (27 per cent) that fear negative effects for their success.
About the survey
From mid-March until mid-April 2025, around 800 companies in Germany took part in the representative ZEW survey. The participants were companies from the manufacturing industry and the information economy, the ICT sector as well as media service providers and knowledge-intensive service providers. The findings presented here were derived from additional questions that had been included in the online questionnaire of the ZEW Business Survey in the Information Economy. Trump’s tariff announcement, made on 2 April and dubbed “Liberation Day”, is covered by the survey period. However, given the corresponding number of respondents, it is not possible to evaluate in a representative manner how this announcement additionally influenced the respondents’ assessments.
