The German economy is on the upswing. The institutes forecast an increase of the real gross domestic product by 3.5 percent in 2010 and 2.0 percent in 2011. The situation on the labour market will continue to improve. For the first time since 1992, the number of unemployed is expected to be below 3 millions. The government’s deficit rate is expected to decrease to 2.7 percent.

According to the joint economic forecast, economic policy in Germany has to continue its announced consolidation plan. On European level, insolvency procedures for countries and banks are necessary. A stricter Stability and Growth Pact could be a reasonable additional measure. Measures like an extension of the rescue parachute for Euro countries or the introduction of pooled government bonds or the mechanism proposed by the European Commission for preventing and correcting macroeconomic disequilibrium are to be rejected.

Short version (German only)

Long version (German only)

The Joint Economic Forecast Group consists of:

  • Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich
  • in cooperation with:
    KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle at ETH Zurich
  • Kiel Institute for the World Economy at the University of Kiel
  • for the medium-term forecast in cooperation with:
    Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim
  • Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)
  • in cooperation with:Kiel Economics
  • RWI Rheinisch Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
  • in cooperation with:
    Institute for Advanced Studies Vienna

Contact

Dr. Marcus Kappler

Phone: +49/621/1235-157

E-mail: kappler@zew.de

Date

24.10.2012

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