Millions of people are suffering under Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Many are fleeing. The EU and the German government have imposed a wide range of sanctions against Russia. The ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research is investigating the economic consequences of the crisis and migration to contribute its expertise to the public debate. All our findings can be found on this theme page.

Achim Wambach
ZEW President

Prof. Achim Wambach

Please contact me for inquiries.
Phone: +49 (0)621 1235-100
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The war is shattering many illusions. Sovereignty, international cooperation and security of supply now need to be reconsidered. First, however, everything needs to be done to stop the fighting.

Cold War Reloaded

Comment

“German Armed Forces Need More Centralization and Greater Flexibility When Purchasing”

The German government has agreed that the German Armed Forces must be modernised quickly to fulfil both its NATO and legal obligations. Accordingly, the German Bundestag provided additional funds worth 100 billion euros solely to be spent on military equipment and assets. Minister of Defence Christine Lambrecht has made out two bottlenecks in that regard: mandatory EU-wide tenders are time-consuming and internal procurement processes are too bureaucratic. ZEW procurement specialist Leonardo Maria Giuffrida, head of the ZEW Junior Research Group “Public Procurement" gives advice.

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Kommentar

The Resilience of Labour in Times of War

As a result of the war in Ukraine and the Western sanctions against Russia, energy and commodity prices are rising. Goods for daily use are becoming more expensive, and oil prices are rising rapidly, as are inflation forecasts. Companies in the chemical and logistics sectors, for example, which are directly affected by the price increases for gas, oil and other raw materials, are adjusting their business models. Labour costs are falling with unexpectedly higher inflation rates and constant nominal wages. This has a temporary stabilising effect. Also, more people are employed in the defence industry, in energy conservation and alternative energies. However, aggregate demand for goods may decline as people begin to prioritise which goods they need and which they can do without if prices continue to rise.

Weiterlesen

Migration and Society

Forschung

Migration from Russia very likely

More than 4.6 million Ukrainians have fled the country since the start of the war. As a result of the invasion, more and more people are also fleeing from Russia. Reasons for this range from the restricted freedom of expression, fear of political persecution or being drafted into military service, to poor economic prospects following the unprecedented level of sanctions on Russia. What is different with current Russian migrants fleeing to neighboring countries compared to Ukrainian migrants, is that there are indications that the economically active population is over-represented among the Russian emigrants. This may include specialists in the IT and other creative sectors of the economy, who have international language skills as well as customers.

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Forschung

Refugees Need Quick Psychological Help

More than two million people have fled from war and violence in Ukraine, especially women and children. They have experienced terrible things in the war and while fleeing, which is why they need not only medical but also psychological help after their arrival in Germany. ZEW researchers have provided an overview based on Google Maps to enable the best possible access to psychological care.

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Comment

ZEW Economist Guido Neidhöfer: Integration More Likely to Succeed with Daycare Centres

Europe is showing unity and solidarity with the refugees of the Ukraine war. In Germany, they are being received quickly and unbureaucratically. However, there are still many unresolved issues. For example, it is not clear how long they will need protection. In the event that they cannot return to their destroyed homeland in the foreseeable future, strategies for successful integration are necessary. Studies by ZEW Mannheim show that the integration of young children can be particularly helpful for the successful integration of the entire family.

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Comment

Civic Engagement Improves the Situation of Refugees

More than one million people from Ukraine are currently fleeing towards the west. Countless volunteers in Eastern Europe and Germany are organising emergency shelters and relief supplies to provide them with essential goods. Paul Berbée, a researcher of the Junior Research Group “Integration of Migrants and Attitudes Towards the Welfare State (IMES)” at ZEW Mannheim, explains the role of volunteers in supporting refugees.

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Recalibrating Energy Transition

Debate

Embargo on Russian Energy?

Can Germany afford to sanction Russia with a ban on energy imports? This discussion between Professor Moritz Schularick of the University of Bonn and Professor Achim Wambach, president of ZEW, originally appeared in the 22 March 2022 issue of the financial daily ‘Handelsblatt’.

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Corporations, Sanctions and Capital Marktes

Research

Experts Anticipate Slowdown of German Economy

German economic growth has stalled – and is expected to proceed at a sluggish pace in the coming years. According to the financial market experts surveyed by ZEW, lower but stable annual growth rates of between 2.0 and 2.5 per cent are anticipated in 2022 to 2024. Several factors will act as a drag on German GDP, including high energy prices, raw material shortages, and supply chain disruptions – as well as the new geopolitical situation that has arisen with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The majority of experts have made downward revisions to their GDP growth forecasts for 2022, 2023 and beyond. With a view to the next five years, individual sectors of the German economy will be affected to varying degrees by geopolitical developments, with the greatest impacts being suffered by vehicle manufacturing, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, steel and non-ferrous metals, and mechanical engineering.

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Kommentar

“Russian Assets and Rouble Now Junk”

The rouble has hit a record low as a result of Western sanctions. The Russian central bank reacts with a dramatic interest rate hike, raising the key interest rate from 9.5 to 20 per cent. Professor Friedrich Heinemann, head of the Research Department “Corporate Taxation and Public Finance” at ZEW Mannheim, has commented on that matter.

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Comment

“A Turning Point for Fiscal Policy in Germany”

The EU Member States have agreed on a set of sanctions in response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Professor Friedrich Heinemann, head of the Research Department “Corporate Taxation and Public Finance” at ZEW Mannheim, comments on the fiscal consequences of the war in Ukraine.

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Focus on Baden Württemberg

You will find current research here shortly.

Our Experts at ZEW

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Energy supply, economic development, health care

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Debt and fiscal policy, Eurasian customs union, reconstruction and charitable giving, remittanes

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Cyber security, digital sovereignty

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Public procurement, accommodation for refugees

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Macroeconomic consequences of the war, inflation, European defence policy, defence spending, debt/debt cap

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Education, child care

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Electricity market

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Health care

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Migration, integration

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ZEW Financial Market Survey, economic sentiment, financial markets

10.05.2022
#ZEWlive

War in Ukraine and the Economic Consequences

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis. At the same time, the economic impact is enormous. We are pleased to welcome the U.S. Consul General in Frankfurt, Norman Thatcher Scharpf, on 10 May at 12:00 in a new edition of our digital series #ZEWlive. He will talk with ZEW President Achim Wambach about the challenges facing the European and global economy. The event will be held in English and moderated by journalist Jessica Sturmberg.

More information

ZEW’s job offers for researchers from Ukraine

Support for Ukraine

Below you will find a list of aid campaigns and useful information on how you can support those in need:

PR Contact

Head of the “Press and Editorial Office” team

Phone: +49 (0)621 1235-132

Ruprecht.Hammerschmidt@zew.de