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The coronavirus pandemic continues to leave a deep mark in the growth forecasts for China for 2020 and 2021, with the growth forecasts for real gross domestic product (GDP) dropping heavily again after an already significant decline in the previous month. This is the main result of the March survey (9–18 March 2020) among international financial market experts for China. The survey is regularly conducted by ZEW Mannheim and Fudan University (Shanghai) on the basis of the China Economic Panel (CEP).

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The most recent survey conducted in February (11–19 February 2020) shows the considerable effects the coronavirus epidemic has on growth forecasts for China, with experts expecting real gross domestic product (GDP) to increase by only 5.4 per cent in 2020 and by only 4.2 per cent in the first quarter of this year. The CEP indicator, which is based on the China Economic Panel (CEP) and reflects the economic expectations of international financial market experts for China, rose to a value of 4.4 points in February 2020, thus again finding itself just outside the negative range. When interpreting this increase, however, it must be noted that the forecast horizon of the CEP indicator is twelve months. The experts surveyed therefore do not expect a noticeable improvement until the beginning of 2021, and this starting from an already quite weak situation of minus 10.9 points. Current point forecasts for Chinese real gross domestic product are much more revealing when it comes to the economic development in the coming months.

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According to the most recent survey for January (13–22 January 2020), the expectations regarding the Chinese economy have remained almost unchanged. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, is currently at minus 8.7 points, 0.2 points higher than in the previous month (December 2019: minus 8.9 points). Since April 2018, the CEP indicator has thus remained in the negative almost without interruption

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In the most recent survey for December (2–10 December 2019), the expectations regarding the Chinese economy worsened. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, is currently at minus 8.9 points, 5.0 points below previous month’s reading (November 2019: minus 3.9 points).

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In the most recent survey for November (5– 13 November 2019), economic sentiment for the Chinese economy has increased slightly by 1.9 points. The CEP (China Economic Panel) Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, is currently at minus 3.9 points (October 2019: minus 5.8 points). The point forecasts for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth were slightly lowered, however. Growth over the course of the current year is now expected to be 6.1 per cent (previous month: 6.2 per cent). The forecast for 2020 was lowered more strongly, from 6.0 per cent in the previous month to a current estimate of 5.8 per cent.

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In the most recent survey for October (8–17 October 2019), the expectations regarding the Chinese economy have increased by 11.9 points. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, is currently at minus 5.8 points (September 2019: minus 17.7 points). Last month’s decline of 12.8 points was thus largely offset by the rise recorded in October.

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The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, is published monthly by ZEW Mannheim and Fudan University in Shanghai. In 2020, the CEP Indicator will be released on the following dates at 09:00 a.m. Frankfurt Time.

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In the most recent survey for September (4–18 September 2019), the expectations regarding the Chinese economy fell for the second time in a row, with the indicator dropping by 12.8 points. In the previous month, expectations had worsened by 4.8 points. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, is currently at minus 17.7 points (August 2019: minus 4.9 points).

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In the most recent survey for August (7–15 August 2019), the expectations regarding the Chinese economy decreased by 4.8 points. This leaves the CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, at a current level of minus 4.9 points (July 2019: minus 0.1 points). The CEP indicator has been below its long-term average of 1.5 points since March 2018 and has been experiencing an almost uninterrupted series of negative readings since April 2018.

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In the most recent survey for July (3–18 July 2019), the expectations regarding the Chinese economy have increased by 7.7 points. With a current reading of minus 0.1 points (June 2019: minus 7.8 points), the CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, remains, however, in negative territory. The CEP indicator has been below its long-term average of 1.6 points since March 2018 and has been experiencing an almost uninterrupted series of negative readings since April 2018.

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