Growth Forecast for China Reaches Record High
China Economic PanelCEP Indicator Currently Stands at 55.0 Points
In the November survey (3–11 November 2020), the CEP indicator recorded a further increase, climbing 5.0 points to a new record high of 55.0 points. The CEP indicator, based on the China Economic Panel (CEP) in cooperation with Fudan University, Shanghai, reflects the economic expectations of international financial market experts for China on a 12-month basis.
The assessment of the current economic situation also continues to improve, with the corresponding indicator rising 24.1 points to a new reading of 30.0 points. Only in April 2018 was there an even more favourable assessment of the situation with an indicator value of 30.3 points.
“The experts are very confident about the development of the Chinese economy in the coming 12 months. This optimism is reflected both in their assessment of the current economic situation and in their expectations,” says Dr. Michael Schröder, researcher in the “International Finance and Financial Management” Research Department at ZEW Mannheim.
Economic growth expected to return to normal as early as next year
The growth forecast for the real gross domestic product also continues to rise. In the November survey, the respondents expect to see growth of 3.4 per cent for the current year 2020 (previous month: 1.9 per cent) and 6.4 per cent for 2021 (previous month: 4.7 per cent). “The growth forecast for China is remarkable in light of the COVID-19 crisis. The experts expect China’s economic growth to return to normal in the coming year,” says Schröder.
Not all regions able to catch up economically
While growth is expected for all sectors and should therefore extend to practically the entire economy, there are considerable differences at the regional level: Expectations for Hong Kong are still very poor at minus 15.7 points, and economic development in the key economic regions of Tianjin and Chongjing is also forecast to be well below average at 3.3 and 13.3 points.
