Economic Expectations for Switzerland Continue Upward Trend

The ZEW-CS-Indicator for the economic sentiment in Switzerland has continued its rise in December 2016. Growing by 4.0 points, the index now stands at 12.9 points. The indicator's current level is therefore far above the long-term average of about minus 10 points. This marks the continuation of an upward trend observed since October 2016. When it comes to the current economic situation in Switzerland, however, experts are less positive in their evaluation than in the previous month: The corresponding indicator declined by 5.0 points to a level of 9.7. None of the survey participants evaluated the current economic situation in Switzerland as "bad."

The ZEW-CS Indicator reflects the expectations of the surveyed financial market experts regarding the economic development in Switzerland on a six-month time horizon. It is calculated monthly by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, in cooperation with Credit Suisse (CS), Zurich.

Despite the ZEW-CS Indicator increasing for the fourth consecutive time, around 66 per cent of the respondents expect the Swiss economy to remain unchanged in the coming six months. The economic expectations for the eurozone have suffered a setback, with optimists and pessimists now holding equal shares. The indicator for the USA, by contrast, records a sharp increase of 24.6 points, now standing at 43.3 points. The slump caused by the US Presidential Election last month is thereby offset. Donald Trump's plans to strengthen the US economy appear to have a positive effect on expectations.

The current survey shows a rise in expectations regarding short-term interest rates in Switzerland, with the corresponding indicator climbing 10.4 points to a level of 13.3. The indicator for the long-term interest rates also records an increase, namely by 3.8 points to a current reading of 56.7 points. None of the respondents expect short-and long-term interest rates to decline. In line with these results, expectations for stock prices in Switzerland, measured by the SMI, have fallen. The respective indicator has lost 9.0 points and now reads 33.4 points.

Detailed Results

More detailed results – including survey participants' assessment of developments in other countries – can be found in this month's edition of the "Switzerland Financial market report".

Please note: ZEW has decided to discontinue its involvement in the survey on the ZEW-CS- Indicator for Switzerland as of 2017. The survey will, however, be continued by Credit Suisse (CS), Zurich, in cooperation with CFA Society Switzerland.

For more information please contact

Markus Teske (ZEW), Phone +49 (0)621/1235-372, E-mail teske@zew.de

Lukas Gehrig (Credit Suisse), Phone +41 44 333 52 07, E-mail lukas.gehrig@credit-suisse.com