ECB Governing Council Continues to Signal Restrictive Stance
Research
03.09.2026
AI ZEW ECB Transparency Monitor Sees September Rate Hike as a Realistic Possibility
Communication by the ECB Governing Council remains clearly geared towards a tighter monetary policy stance. At the end of August, the current Opinion Score in the ZEW ECB Transparency Monitor stands at +0.49, remaining firmly in restrictive monetary policy territory. Following a sharp rise to +0.63 in the second quarter of 2026, the tone adopted by Governing Council members had become somewhat more moderate in July.
Friedrich Heinemann, head of ZEW Mannheim’s Research Unit “Corporate Taxation and Public Finance” and professor at Heidelberg University, comments on the findings: “The moderate tone that could be observed within the ECB Governing Council in July was apparently short-lived. By the end of August, communication had again become somewhat more restrictive. What is particularly noteworthy is that this stance is broadly shared among those Governing Council members who communicate publicly. With inflation most recently standing at 3.3 per cent, persistently high risks related to energy prices and, at the same time, surprisingly robust growth data, the case for further monetary policy tightening within the ECB Governing Council is by no means off the table. An interest rate hike in September therefore appears likely.”
Doves and hawks at the ECB Governing Council
The indicator assesses public speeches by members of the ECB Governing Council on a scale ranging from –1 to +1. A score of –1 represents a strongly “dovish” stance and thus a preference for looser monetary policy, while +1 indicates a strongly “hawkish” position with a more restrictive monetary policy stance. Hawks are more inclined to advocate interest rate hikes to combat inflation. Doves, by contrast, place greater emphasis on the potential negative effects of higher interest rates on economic activity and employment and therefore tend to favour lower interest rates.
Differences between the positions of individual Governing Council members remain limited in the third quarter of 2026. The divergence of dovish and hawkish positions most recently stood around 0.30, well below the high levels recorded during previous periods of monetary policy conflict which pointed to considerable disagreement within the Governing Council. The restrictive underlying stance is therefore broadly shared.
About the ECB Transparency Monitor
The ECB Transparency Monitor, run by ZEW Mannheim, analyses the European Central Bank’s monetary policy from an independent academic perspective. It brings together key economic and fiscal data on the current monetary policy environment and enables the communications of the members of the Governing Council to be systematically compared. The project is supported by the Geld und Währung Foundation.
A key component is the Opinion Score, published quarterly. This AI-based indicator evaluates recent public statements by members of the Governing Council at six-week intervals and assesses whether their communications point more towards a restrictive (‘hawkish’) or expansionary (‘dovish’) monetary policy stance. The indicator thus provides early indications of how the consensus within the ECB Governing Council is evolving.
