Since many years the analysis of the determinants for the length of individual unemployment durations is subject to scientific and political discussion in Germany. However, the results of the existing scientific contributions are controversial and some of them did not treat important aspects. In this project new developments in econometrics for duration analysis are considered and extended for an application to Germany. As data we use a sample of the German social security records (IAB-Beschäftigtenstichprobe) which was rarely used in this field in the past. It is our goal to use a non- or semiparametric specification that accounts for macroeconomic variations and the distribution of unobserved heterogeneity in order to obtain a flexible model with low risk of misspecification. We considerMixed-Proportional-Hazard models with recent extensions andquantile regression estimators as our main methods. The analysis should result in a deep empirical knowledge of the micro- and macroeconomic determinants of unemployment durations in Germany. Such assured facts may result in recommendations for the labor market policy in Germany.

Selected Publications

Discussion and Working Papers

Wilke, Ralf and Martin Biewen (2005), Unemployment Duration and the Length of Entitlement Periods for Unemployment Benefits: Do the IAB Employment Subsample and the German Socio-Economic Panel Yield the Same Results?, ZEW Discussion Paper No. 05-05, Mannheim, LLL:citation.label.journal: Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv, 89(2), S.209-236. Download

Fitzenberger, Bernd and Ralf Wilke (2005), Using Quantile Regression for Duration Analysis, ZEW Discussion Paper No. 05-65, Mannheim, LLL:citation.label.journal: Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv 90(1), 103-118. Download

Kyyrä, Tomi and Ralf Wilke (2004), Reduction in the Long-Term Unemployment of the Elderly: A Success Story from Finland, ZEW Discussion Paper No. 04-63, Mannheim, LLL:citation.label.journal: Journal of the European Economic Association (forthcoming). Download

Lüdemann, Elke, Ralf Wilke and Xuan Zhang (2004), Censored Quantile Regressions and the Length of Unemployment Periods in West Germany, ZEW Discussion Paper No. 04-57, Mannheim, LLL:citation.label.journal: Empirical Economics (forthcoming). Download

Fitzenberger, Bernd, Ralf Wilke and Xuan Zhang (2004), A Note on Implementing Box-Cox Quantile Regression, ZEW Discussion Paper No. 04-61, Mannheim. Download

Wilke, Ralf (2004), New Estimates of the Duration and Risk of Unemployment for West-Germany, ZEW Discussion Paper No. 04-26, Mannheim, LLL:citation.label.journal: Journal of Applied Social Science Studies (Schmollers Jahrbuch), Nr. 128(2), S.207-237. Download

Wilke, Ralf (2003), Eine empirische Analyse von Sanktionen für Arbeitslose in Westdeutschland während der 1980er und 1990er Jahre, ZEW Discussion Paper No. 03-71, Mannheim, LLL:citation.label.journal: Zeitschrift für Arbeitsmarktforschung Jg. 37, H. 1, S. 45-52. Download

Project duration

01.01.2003 - 31.12.2005

Project members

Prof. Bernd Fitzenberger, PhD
Prof. Dr. Ralf Wilke

Cooperation partner

Stefan Bender, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung der Bundesanstalt für Arbeit, Nürnberg, DE
Lee Sokbae, University College London, London, UK
Gerard Van den Berg, Tinbergen Institute Rotterdam, Rotterdam, NL
Kyyrä Tomi, Government Institute for Economic Research, Helsinki, FI
José F. Machado, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lissabon, PT
Hidehiko Ichimura, University College London, London, UK