The latest forecasts show, that we will encounter a strong growth in freight transport in the next few years. The objective of this study is to analyse the potential to bring freight to other means of transport. The measures that can contribute to this shall be investigated. A shift in modal split can go with a diminution of quality, as every transport system has specific advantages and disadvantages. Therefore it should be taken into consideration that the shipping industry can meet its requirements after a shift to other means of transport. So first of all it has to be made clear from which factors (price, time for shipment, reliability, flexibility, etc.) the demand for freight traffic depends on. Based on a continuous questioning the determinants should be evaluated and quantified by using special consumer-producer-structures These quantified determinants of demand for freight transport will be integrated into a discrete decision model to simulate the effect of political measures, that are undertaken to achieve a shift in modal split, on the selection of transport facilities. As a result in this research programme great significance must be attached to the analysis of the elasticity of demand. Elasticity of price and time are of overriding importance and should be quantified for freight traffic.
01.01.2001 - 31.08.2004
Dr. Georg Bühler