The assessment of the current economic situation has improved considerably by 14.3 points and now stands at 17.6 points. This is the most positive assessment of the economic situation since the introduction of the survey in July 2013.
The point forecasts have also improved. For instance, the forecast for the second quarter of 2017 has increased from 6.6 per cent to 6.7 per cent. For the whole of 2017, the respondents expect an average growth in China's gross domestic product of 6.6 per cent. For 2018, experts forecast an average growth of 6.5 per cent. For both forecasts this constitutes an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous survey (March 2017).
Domestic consumption – one of the main drivers of growth – should benefit from a significant expected increase in employment. According to the financial experts, foreign trade is also likely to improve again.
In terms of the various sectors, high hopes rest on the information technology sector as well as on insurance companies and investment banks. The automotive and the construction sectors as well as consumer-oriented sectors are also viewed very positively.
"Given the current forecasts and expectations, we could see the Chinese economy move back into calmer waters with a return to the usual high growth rates," says Dr. Michael Schröder, Senior Researcher in the ZEW Research Department "International Finance and Financial Management" and project leader of the CEP survey.
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