DIFI Report by ZEW and JLL Released: Subdued Projections Despite Positive Business Environment

Research

The German Real Estate Finance Index (DIFI) by ZEW and JLL decreased by 1.7 points in the third quarter of 2017 to a current reading of -7.2 points. Despite a climb of 4.4 points to 9.8 points in the assessment of the current financing situation, the sentiment index for commercial real estate financing remains negative for the third quarter in a row. Once again the cause is the far worse assessment of the predicted financing situation for the next six months.

This result shows that the mood in the commercial real estate market remains fairly pessimistic. Despite the fact that, based on an assessment of the past six months, the business environment for commercial real estate financiers has remained stable at a high level and even shown slight improvement, when it comes to predictions for the next six months, pessimism is mounting in all four usage categories. The outlook appears particularly bleak for retail property financing. At -36.7 points, the indicator is close to its all-time low back in 2012. These are the key findings of the DIFI Report, a quarterly survey on the commercial real estate financing market in Germany carried out by ZEW in cooperation with JLL.

The German Real Estate Finance Index (DIFI)

The German Real Estate Finance Index (DIFI) reflects the situation (including the previous six months) and expectations (for the coming six months) of survey participants concerning the German commercial property financing markets. It is conducted on a quarterly basis and calculated as the average value of the balances in the following four sectors of the property market: office, retail, logistics and residential. The balance for each sector is the difference between the percentage of participants who are optimistic and the percentage of participants who are pessimistic about the current state and future development of financing conditions in the German real estate market. The DIFI is a survey conducted and published by Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW). 44 experts participated in the August 2017 survey.