ZEW/ProgTrans AG – Survey Among Experts in the Transport Market - No Slowdown in Prices Despite the Expected Decrease of Transported Goods

Within the next six months the German transport sector will face stagnating and, in some areas, even declining amounts of transported goods. However, transport firms are not likely to reduce prices for their customers. On the contrary, the constantly high prices for diesel fuel, the expected increase in the lorry toll or pay rises, particularly in the sector of courier-, express- and parcel services (CEP-services), will contribute to a further rise in prices. This is the result of the latest Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer), a survey on a three month basis among 300 top executives of the transport and shipper industry in Germany. It is conducted by ProgTrans AG in Basel and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim.

The recent survey carried out in August 2008 showed that overall the experts’ expectations for the coming six months are below those for the previous quarters. The number of experts expecting an increase in the amount of transported goods has dropped to slightly more than one third within the sector of road haulage and combined transport as well as CEP-services. The vast majority of the questioned experts do not expect any changes to the amount of transported goods for rail freight services, inland navigation and CEP-services. As far as air and sea freight are concerned the experts are very pessimistic about the development of the amount of goods transported to Europe and North America while they assess the situation for transports to the Asia/Pacific region as slightly more positive.

Although the amounts of transported goods are predicted to decline within the next six months, the majority of the survey participants expect rising prices for all submarkets. The unfavourable economic perspectives do not change their expectations. Continuingly high oil prices are more likely to be the reason for rising prices. The prices for diesel fuel reached an all-time (nominal) high in June 2008. Of all submarkets the road haulage, CEP-services as well as air freight are expected to show the highest price increases.

The ProgTrans/ZEW Transport Market Barometer

Since 1998 the ProgTrans AG in Basel and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim have conducted a trimestrial survey among 300 top executives of the transport and shipper industry in Germany concerning the development on the transport markets. The experts are asked to asses the coming six months regarding to what extent transport volume and transport prices will rise (significantly/slightly), fall (significantly/slightly) or remain unchanged. It comprises the following sections within the national and transnational transport to Western and Eastern Europe: road haulage, rail freight services, inland navigation, combined transport as well as courier-, express- and parcel services. Furthermore the experts predict the developments in the air and sea freight sector from Germany to other European countries, the route to North America and the Asia/Pacific region.

For further information please contact

Dr. Georg Bühler (ZEW), E-mail: buehler@zew.de

Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (ProgTrans), Phone: +41/61/56035-10, E-mail: stefan.rommerskirchen@progtrans.com