Can Family Policy Measures Increase Birth Rates? Sub-Study on Fertility in the Context of the “Overall Evaluation of the Monetary Family Related Benefits” Published

Research

Today, the Centre for European Economic Research, Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI), Forschungszentrum Familienbewusste Personalpolitik (Munster) as well as the universities of Cologne and Duisburg-Essen published the first of two studies planned for the "fertility" module of the overall evaluation (sub-study a). The sub-study is titled "Geburten und Kinderwünsche in Deutschland – Bestandsaufnahme, Einflussfaktoren und Datenquellen" (Birth Rates and the Desire to Have Children in Germany – Survey, Determinants, and Data Sources). Researchers of the institutes involved currently examine the impact of monetary family-related benefits and measures on the fertility behaviour in Germany, and analyse which factors influence the decision to have (more) children.

The report presented today describes empirical data on fertility, the desire of child bearing and the demographic development, and it gives an overview of the current state of German and international research on factors impacting fertility. The report also identifies possible data sources for an impact study. The study is designed to offer players in the field of family policy, the interested public and the scientific community an overview of the variety of literature on the topic. The study is conducted on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth (BMFSFJ) and the Federal Ministry of Finance (BMF).

The overview suggests that although family policy may play a supporting role, the realisation of child bearing depends on numerous other factors, for example the number of siblings of potential parents, their educational levels as well as their professional biographies. Particular importance lies on the transformation of social role models and the recognition of families and children. Hegemonic attitudes towards working mothers and extra-familial child care may favour, but also hinder the effects of family policy measures. It is also becoming clear that the desire to have children is difficult to measure; empirical numbers are hence not strictly indicative of actual future birth rates. The gap between the desire to have children and the actual birth rate (“fertility gap”), which is sometimes used as an indicator for the success and leeway of family policy, should thus be interpreted with care.

Against the backdrop of these findings, the impact of policy making on birth rates will be examined on the basis of a consistent model framework adapted to conditions in Germany for the first time. The literature survey suggests that data from scenarios in other countries is not readily applicable in Germany due to economic, political, and legal conditions as well as normative preferences in the German society. The results of the impact study will be presented in summer 2013.

Contact for more information

Dr. Holger Stichnoth, Phone +49/621/1235-362, E-mail stichnoth@zew.de