In co-operation with the SEW Eurodrive GmbH, a tool for prognosticating the turnover of supporting products is being developed which will allow valid forecasts concerning a time frame from three up to six months. This involves different farecasting techniques for each category of suporting products, such as, e.g., the application of purely explorative approaches of time series economics as in ARIMA models (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), other dynamic models like ECM (Error Correction Models) as well as VAR (vector autoregressive) systems which are examined as regards their capacities for prognosis. The software permits the client to autonomously forecast demand by disclosing results from various forecasting tools as well as their respective evaluation in adherence to formal proofing criteria.
The background to this research concerns the problem of optimising within the firm the costs of storage, stock-out, ordering and production, according to which the stochastic demand of the supporting products, i.e. the storage goods output, has to be forecasted as regards optimal order quantity and point-in-time for stock-receipt.
The project, including implemetation of the software product developed specifically for the client, has been successfully completed.
SEW-Eurodrive GmbH & Co KG
01.04.2002 - 01.10.2002
Fachhochschule Pforzheim, Pforzheim, DE