Prognos (Basel) and ZEW (Mannheim), drawing on support by German Parcel, have developed a business sentiment indicator for the transport industry. The main idea of this Transport Market Barometer is to utilise the knowledge of experts in the transport and cargo industry in a systematic fashion such that the short-term development of transport volumes and prices in the transport markets can be predicted based on theri assessments. Accordingly, a dedicated circle of experts is surveyed on a regular basis, i.e. four times a year, as to their expectations regarding the development of volume and prices in six different transport markets. The following markets are referred to in this distinction: road haulage, railway goods traffic, inland navigation, air freight, courier / express / parcel services, and combined transport. Furthermore, a distinction is made between national and international transport (separately for East and West Europe). In the road haulage sector the experts were interviewed about the development of both regional and long-distance traffic. In recognition of their participation the participants receive all the findings immediately after they have been analysed, free of charge. In the evaluation we explain the changes for the individual transport market segments of the last three studies explained them briefly. These results are also made available to the interested trade publications. The first two surveys were conducted in June and September 1998 in a pilot phase. They yielded the desired number of approximately 150 experts who intend to participate regularly in the "Transport Market Indicator ProgTrans/ZEW". After having successfully concluded this test phase, we decided to continue these surveys as regular interviews for an indefinite period of time. After an advertising campaign, the number of experts rose to about 200 in the middle of 1999.


German Parcel Paket-Logistik GmbH, Neuenstein

Project duration

01.04.1998 - 30.09.1998

Project members

Sigurd Weinreich (Coordinator)
Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen
Dr. Andrea Szczesny

Cooperation partner

Prognos AG, Basel, CH