Central bank surveys frequently elicit households’ probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. The responses provide only a coarse picture of inflation beliefs further away from zero. Using data from the…
We propose to treat survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Monte Carlo…
Using data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters and ECB/Eurosystem staff projections, we analyze the role of ex-ante conditioning variables for macroeconomic forecasts. In…
We analyze the effectiveness of the German tax reduction on fuel prices (‘Tankrabatt’) that was introduced for three months, starting on 1 June 2022. We use the synthetic difference-in-differences estimator to…
E-commerce has gained importance over the last years and the COVID-19 pandemic has further strengthened this development. With the increasing opportunities that novel transport technologies, amongst them cargo…
The German pension system is facing major challenges. Demographic change, which is increasingly skewing the ratio of contributors to pensioners, is creating ever greater pressure for reform. The baby boomer…
We investigate multinational firms' activities in tax havens and regulatory efforts to curb these activities in three steps. First, we discuss the evolution of information exchange and disclosure regimes among…
Obtaining indicators on the innovation activities of firms has been a challenge in economic research for a long time. The most frequently used indicators - R&D expenditures and patents - provide an incomplete…
