A KISS for central bank communication in times of high inflation

Refereed Journal // 2026
Refereed Journal // 2026

A KISS for central bank communication in times of high inflation

During the post-pandemic inflation surge, many central banks used communication about the inflation outlook to limit spillovers from realized to expected inflation. We present novel survey evidence showing that ECB guidance about the projected inflation path lowers households’ inflation expectations when inflation is unusually high. Qualitative, positively framed messages have the largest effects on short-term expectations, while simple visualizations are particularly effective at longer horizons. Effects are heterogeneous across socio-demographic groups. Our findings suggest that, regarding their communication, central banks should ‘keep it sophisticatedly simple (KISS)’.

Lora Pavlova and Guido Schultefrankenfeld (2026), A KISS for central bank communication in times of high inflation, Journal of International Money and Finance 165

Authors Mathias Hoffmann // Emanuel Moench // Lora Pavlova // Guido Schultefrankenfeld