Wechselkursänderungserwartungen - Von Tauben, Spatzen, Blinden, Fischen und Herden

We used the foreign-exchange rate forecasts of theWall Street Journal poll to analyze whether exchange-rate forecasters herd or anti-herd. Forecasters herd (anti-herd) if their forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. Upon implementing a robust empirical test developed by Bernhardt et al. (J. Financ. Econ. 80: 657-675, 2006), we found that forecasters of the yen/dollar and the dollar/euro exchange rates anti-herd.