Numerous scientists from the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) presented their research results at the 31th Annual Congress of the European Economic Association (EEA) in Geneva, which was held from August 22-26, 2016. In addition to the presentations, ZEW also participated as EEA-ESEM 2016 exhibitor, hosting an own information stand at the congress. The 69th Annual European Meeting of the Econometric Society (ESEM) ran in parallel with the Annual Congress of the EEA.
On June 23, 2016, the British voted to depart from the European Union. Some 70 per cent of voters took to the polls, passing the referendum with a 51.9 per cent majority. Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, which governs departure, foresees a two-year negotiation period that can be extended if necessary. However, both the UK and the EU are not interested in drawing out negotiations, for uncertainty about the outcomes is harmful to both sides.
Economic expectations for Central and Eastern Europe including Turkey (CEE region) have slightly improved again in August 2016. In the current survey, the ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for the CEE region has increased by 3.5 points to a level of 15.4 points, after a decrease of similar magnitude in July 2016.
In August 2016, the ZEW-CS-Indicator for the economic sentiment in Switzerland has once again experienced a decrease. With a drop by 8.7 points to a reading of minus 2.8 points, the indicator continues the downward trend already seen in the previous month. When it comes to the current economic situation, however, the surveyed experts recorded an upward trend, with the relevant indicator rising from 0.0 points in July 2016 to a current reading of 11.3 points.
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany increased in August 2016. The index gained 7.3 points compared to the previous month, now standing at 0.5 points (long-term average: 24.2 points). "The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment has partly recovered from the Brexit shock. Political risks within and outside the European Union, however, continue to inhibit a more optimistic economic outlook for Germany. Furthermore, uncertainty about the resilience of the EU banking sector persists," comments ZEW-President Professor Achim Wambach.