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Financial Market Survey Central and Eastern Europe

ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) - Economic Expectations Decrease

In September 2014 economic expectations for Central and Eastern Europe including Turkey (CEE region) slightly decrease . In the current survey the ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for the CEE region has lost 7.9 points and now stands at a rather balanced level of 3.3 points. The majority of 43.3 per cent of the survey participants does not expect any changes in the economic conditions of the CEE region over the next six months. The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe reflects the financial market experts' expectations for the CEE region on a six-month time horizon. The indicator has been compiled on a monthly basis together with further financial market data by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim with the support of Erste Group Bank, Vienna, since 2007. read more

Financial Market Survey Switzerland

ZEW-CS Financial Market Test Switzerland - Economic expectations decrease

In September 2014 the economic expectations for Switzerland decline by 10.2 points. Thus the ZEW-CS Indicator now stands at a level of minus 7.7 points. This is its first negative reading since January 2013. The slightly negative level suggests that financial analysts expect Switzerland's economic performance to decline. The ZEW-CS Indicator reflects the expectations of the surveyed financial market experts regarding the economic development in Switzerland on a six-month time horizon. It is calculated monthly by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, in cooperation with Credit Suisse (CS), Zurich. read more

ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment

ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment - Downward Trend Significantly Slowed

After slight losses (minus 1.7 points) in September, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany stands at 6.9 points (long-term average: 24.6 points). The indicator has thereby decreased for the ninth consecutive time, although to a much lesser extent than in August. "The downward trend of the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany has slowed significantly. However, the economic climate is still characterized by great uncertainty. The risk of a sanction spiral with Russia continues to exist and economic activity in the Eurozone remains disappointing. Last but not least, it is difficult to assess potential consequences of Scottish independence", says ZEW President Professor Clemens Fuest. read more

Research

Investments in Education Are Money well Spent for the German State

German State revenues generated by taxes and duties of employees with a vocational training or a university degree are considerably higher than the public expenditures invested in their education. On average, the fiscal net revenue for the treasury per trainee throughout their entire working life totals EUR 124,000 for employees with a vocational training as compared to those without a formal education, and EUR 97,000 for employees with a university degree as compared to those with a vocational training. Therefore, education investments are money well spent for German public authorities. These are the findings of a study on returns to education investments in Germany, which was carried out by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim and supported financially by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). read more

Research

ZEW-JLL DIFI Report Published: Positive Real Estate Financing Conditions Despite Slowing Macroeconomic Momentum

The German Real Estate Finance Index (DIFI) remains stable in the third quarter of 2014. The assessment of the current financing situation has hit a new all-time high of 40.8 points, whereas the experts’ optimism about further improvement in financing conditions appears to dwindle slightly. However, financing expectations still stand at a positive level of 7.6 points after a 2.8 points drop. Compared to the previous quarter, the index has decreased by 0.7 points to 24.2 points overall. Since its launch almost three years ago, the DIFI has gained almost 40 points from minus 13.1 to 24.2 points. After some signs of pronounced volatility during 2012, the DIFI has been notably stable since autumn 2013. These are the central findings of the quarterly survey on the real estate financing market in Germany conducted among real estate financing experts by ZEW in cooperation with JLL. 53 experts participated in the survey in August 2014. read more

Call for Papers

Call for Papers: Conference on National Systems of Entrepreneurship (November 21-22, 2014)

National Systems of Entrepreneurship (NSE) are fundamental resource allocation systems driven by opportunity pursuit of individuals through the creation of new ventures. In contrast to the institutional emphasis of the National Systems of Innovation (NSI) frameworks, NSE are driven by individuals who act within and interact with an institutional frame. This approach differs from traditional entrepreneurship research, where institutions are largely silent. Hetero, the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Indiana University, and the University of Augsburg jointly host the international conference in co-operation with Small Business Economics Journal on November 21-22, 2014, in Mannheim. The aim of this conference is to discuss recent scientific contributions on issues related to NSE, the comparison of NSI with NSE, as well as institutional, legal, and national developments on entrepreneurship. Papers introducing recent theoretic, econometric, and policy-oriented studies from all areas of entrepreneurship research, particularly from the conference topics show in the Call for Papers PDF file, are invited. Please submit your paper or an extended abstract (three pages minimum) as PDF file to entrepreneurship2014@zew.de no later than October 13, 2014. read more

Conferences

MaCCI Law and Economics Conference on Financial Regulation and Competition (November 6-7, 2014)

The Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) and the University of Mannheim jointly host the MaCCI Law and Economics Conference on Financial Regulation and Competition in Mannheim on November 6 and 7, 2014. The objective of the conference is to assess the role of financial regulation in the competition among financial services providers in the aftermath of the financial crisis. The MaCCI Law and Economics Conference provides a platform for discussion between academic researchers in law, economics, and business administration as well as practitioners from government institutions (regulatory bodies, market supervisors, central banks etc.), law firms, and financial services providers. We invite interested participants (non-presenters) to register online no later than October 13. Please note that only a limited number of non-presenters will be able to attend. The conference fee is EUR 100 for academic participants and EUR 200 for non-academic participants. It covers conference materials, coffee, lunches, and the conference dinner. read more

Statements

ZEW President Clemens Fuest on "Youth unemployment: Waging an effective battle"

Some 5.5 million youths under 25 are currently unemployed in the EU. While not a new problem, youth unemployment has become much more acute since the outbreak of the last economic crisis. Across the EU, youth unemployment jumped from 15.6 per cent in 2008 to 23.5 per cent in 2013. Yet this figure conceals highly divergent trends in individual member states. While youth unemployment fell during this period in Germany from 10.6 per cent to 7.9 per cent, in Italy it rose from 21.3 per cent to 40 per cent, and in Spain from 24.6 per cent to over 55 per cent. Of course, these figures are partially explained by Germany’s quick recovery after 2009, in contrast to the persistent negative impacts exerted by the financial and sovereign debt crisis on Spain and Italy. However, differences in national education systems and labour market institutions have also played a role. Clearly, Germany has benefitted from its "dual education system", which formally combines hands-on apprenticeships with classroom study. But other factors, such as dismissal protections and the relations between firms and unions, have also contributed to Germany's better performance in this area. Numerous studies have shown that experiencing unemployment has lasting negative impacts on the career development of youths. This is one of several reasons why action is imperative. read more


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