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Business Cycle and Growth Analysis

The Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) observes the economic situation in Germany and the EMU currently.
We jugde professional forecasts of several institutions and publish studies on macroeconomic topics in scientific papers and a business report.

Main focus of macroeconomic research at the ZEW

Business Cycle Tableaus with Macroeconomic Indicators and Forecasts

From January 2013 on, ZEW will publish monthly business cycle tableaus for Germany and the Eurozone in cooperation with Börsen-Zeitung. The tableaus will show current forecasts for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), its main components, consumer price inflation, industrial production, unemployment rate, short- and long-term interest rates, and interest rate spreads.

Numerous banks and economic research institutes regularly publish reports on the current and future economic situation in Germany and the Eurozone. We scan these publications and compile the relevant information to compute a median, minimum and maximum of the available forecasts for the current and subsequent year. We mainly focus on national business cycle reports and complement the tableaus with forecasts form international banks and institutes. The tableau for the Eurozone is augmented by data from European banks and institutes.

Business Cycle Tableau GermanyBusiness Cycle Tableau Eurozone

ZEW Revision Indicator

The ZEW Revision Indicator for Germany and the Eurozone (see graphs below) shows the evolution of GDP median forecasts and the monthly forecast revisions of the ZEW Business Cycle Tableau for the current year. ZEW's Revision Indicator reflects in which direction current business cycle information has influenced the sentiment of forecasters in banks and institutions. Business cycle forecasts are revised whenever forecasters receive new economic information, e.g. recently published sentiment indicators or newly released statistical data.

Reading aid

The axis on the left-hand side of each diagram shows year-on-year growth rates of real GDP median forecasts. The time-axis of each diagram shows the month of the forecast release. Additionally, the diagram contains the minimum and maximum values of the forecasts (vertical grey line).


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