CEE Indicator of Economic Sentiment
East European financial markets | Central Europe | Business survey | Cyclical indicator | Short-term forecast | Central-Eastern Europe | Eastern Europe | Turkey | ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
Economic expectations for the CEE region including Turkey have slightly improved again in August 2016.

Economic expectations for Central and Eastern Europe including Turkey (CEE region) have slightly improved again in August 2016. In the current survey, the ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for the CEE region has increased by 3.5 points to a level of 15.4 points, after a decrease of similar magnitude in July 2016.

CH Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Business survey | Cyclical indicator | Short-term forecast | Switzerland | ZEW-CS-Indicator
In August 2016, the ZEW-CS-Indicator for the economic sentiment in Switzerland has once again dropped to a reading of minus 2.8 points.

In August 2016, the ZEW-CS-Indicator for the economic sentiment in Switzerland has once again experienced a decrease. With a drop by 8.7 points to a reading of minus 2.8 points, the indicator continues the downward trend already seen in the previous month. When it comes to the current economic situation, however, the surveyed experts recorded an upward trend, with the relevant indicator rising from 0.0 points in July 2016 to a current reading of 11.3 points.

ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Business Cycle | Cyclical indicator | Short-term forecast | Germany | Business survey | ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany, August 2016

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany increased in August 2016. The index gained 7.3 points compared to the previous month, now standing at 0.5 points (long-term average: 24.2 points). "The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment has partly recovered from the Brexit shock. Political risks within and outside the European Union, however, continue to inhibit a more optimistic economic outlook for Germany. Furthermore, uncertainty about the resilience of the EU banking sector persists," comments ZEW-President Professor Achim Wambach.

Research
Digitisation | price of electricity | Energy market | ZEW-Energiemarktbarometer | Electricity market
Energy market experts consider the pace of the digitisation in Germany and France to be too slow.

The digital revolution is gradually encroaching on all economic sectors, including the electricity industry. The "Act on the Digitisation of the Energy Transition" shows just how high this development ranks on the German political agenda. The digitisation process in the German and French electricity industry is, however, still too slow-paced. This is one of the key findings of the ZEW Energy Market Barometer, a survey among approximately 200 energy market experts conducted biannually by the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW).

Research
Energy pricing policy | Energy Policy | Energy market | Energy source | ZEW-Energiemarktbarometer
Prices for almost all energy sources are expected to increase: in particular, electricity, curde oil and natural gas seem set to become more expensive.

Prices for almost all energy sources are expected to increase within the coming five years. This is the case for prices in Germany, as well as for worldwide energy prices. Electricity, crude oil and natural gas seem set to become more expensive. When it comes to coal, however, experts are divided between predictions of price stability and price increases. These are the findings of the latest ZEW Energy Market Barometer, a biannual survey carried out by the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) amongst approximately 200 energy market experts.

Research
Europe | Test | United States | Equity capital | Banking System
Alarming stress test results for European banks: the measured capital shortfalls differ to the extent of billions according to the stress scenario and the stress test methodology used.

European banks lack sufficient capital to offset the losses expected in the case of another financial crisis. Quite how big losses are depends, however, on the stress level to which banks are subject. A recent study carried out by Sascha Steffen (Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) and University of Mannheim) together with Viral Acharya (New York University Stern School of Business) and Diane Pierret (University of Lausanne) has considered results from the latest round of stress tests carried out for European banks. The study shows that the measured capital shortfalls differ to the extent of billions according to the stress scenario and the stress test methodology used. In particular, substantial differences are seen for banks in France, the United Kingdom, in Germany, Spain, and Italy.

Research
Digitisation | Modern working practices | Division of labour | Information Services | Information and communication
Crowdworking is currently only a marginal form of employment: The majority of crowdworkers are in paid employment, or are completing vocational training or university studies.

The last few years have seen the development of a market for paid, online labour. Crowdsourced labour allows businesses to allocate small tasks (so-called microtasks) efficiently to external workers via online platforms. In view of controversy surrounding this new online division of labour, the socio-economic backgrounds and motives of crowdworkers in Germany have been investigated in a study carried out by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (BMAS). The results show that crowdworking is currently only a marginal form of employment. More than 50 per cent of the respondents claimed to devote only up to an hour each week to crowdwork.

China Economic Panel
China Economic Panel | Business survey | Short-term forecast | Cyclical indicator | China
China Economic Panel (CEP) - July 2016

The recent survey carried out in July (18 – 27/07/2016) indicates a recovery in expectations for the Chinese economy. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has increased to a current total of 6.6 points. The indicator previously totalled 0 points.

M&A Index
M&A activity | ZEW-ZEPHYR M&A-Index | Takeover | M&A | M&A report
The current ZEW-ZEPHYR M&A Volume per Deal Index. Particularly notable is the fact that the aggregated transaction volume has remained constant at an extremely high level since September 2015.

The trend toward ever larger transactions, seen in the global market for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) since 2014, continues. Whilst the number of transactions has fallen to its lowest level in twelve years, the volume of individual transactions continues to increase. This is the result of recent calculations by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) based on the Zephyr database of Bureau van Dijk (BvD).

Research
Europe | Capital adequacy rules | Equity capital | Banking System | ECB
 The size of capital shortfalls of banks across EU countries in a crisis scenario increased by 35 per cent.

The European banking sector requires a comprehensive recapitalisation of its banks in order to withstand another potential crisis. Those banks in need of recapitalisation are not only from peripheral countries of the eurozone such as Italy and Spain, but also from countries such as Germany and France. If the market index were to drop by 40 per cent over a six-month period, the estimated capital shortfalls of European banks would amount to up to €882 billion. Banks are likely to require public backstops in such a scenario.

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