Research
Migration research | Migration policy | Delinquency | Voting behaviour | Germany | Refugees | Unemployment
Increased migration leads to higher unemployment rates among non-German workers in particular.

The effects of the large influx of refugees arriving in Germany have been the focus of intense political and social debate. A joint study by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, and the University of Strathclyde has been investigating the short-term effects of this migration on unemployment, crimes rates and voting behaviour in Germany. The results of the study show that increased migration leads to higher unemployment rates among non-German workers in particular. Crime rates experienced only a negligible change. A larger influx of refugees or the existence of an immigrant reception centre in a particular region does not on their own lead to greater electoral success for anti-migration parties, such as the AfD ("Alternative for Germany"), in comparison with other regions with no large influxes of migrants or reception centres.

Comment
ECB | Interest rate policy | Interest Rate | Federal Reserve Bank

The US Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate by 0.25 per cent, to a range of 0.5 to 0.75 per cent. Professor Friedrich Heinemann, head of the "Corporate Taxation and Public Finance" Research Department at the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim, comments on the decision.

CH Indicator of Economic Sentiment
ZEW-CS-Indicator | Switzerland | Short-term forecast | Cyclical indicator | Business survey
The ZEW-CS Indicator for Switzerland increased for the fourth consecutive time and currently stands at 12.9 points

The ZEW-CS-Indicator for the economic sentiment in Switzerland has continued its rise in December 2016. Growing by 4.0 points, the index now stands at 12.9 points. The indicator's current level is therefore far above the long-term average of about minus 10 points. This marks the continuation of an upward trend observed since October 2016. When it comes to the current economic situation in Switzerland, however, experts are less positive in their evaluation than in the previous month: The corresponding indicator declined by 5.0 points to a level of 9.7. None of the survey participants evaluated the current economic situation in Switzerland as "bad."

ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment | Cyclical indicator | Short-term forecast | Germany | Business survey
ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany, December 2016

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany has remained unchanged at a level of 13.8 points (long-term average: 24.0 points) in December 2016. "The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment remains at the same level; however, given the fact that the evaluation of the current situation has once again recorded an improvement, the overall assessment is quite positive. This is supported by the recently published positive GDP growth figures for the euro area in the third quarter. The considerable economic risks arising from the tense situation in the Italian banking sector, as well as the political risks surrounding upcoming elections in Europe, seem to have faded into the background at the moment," comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach,PhD.

Research
Real estate market | Real estate price | Real Estate Services | Housing market | Housing stock
The map shows the housing vacancy rates in the municipalities in Germany.

While rising housing prices in large cities are currently a popular topic for discussion in Germany, there are an increasing number of homes in rural and peripheral areas being left vacant. This is particularly, though not exclusively, the case in the East German states. A decisive factor for high numbers of empty properties is often a struggling local economy. Vacant housing in turn exerts pressure on property prices in the surrounding area. These are the findings of a current discussion paper of the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim. The study is part of the interdisciplinary research project "Single-Family Homes under Pressure (Homes-uP)", which is funded by the Leibniz Association.

Events
Anniversary | ZEW | Leibniz Association
ZEW celebrates its 25th anniversary with a ceremony.

The Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), a member institution of the Leibniz Association, is celebrating its 25th birthday today! "ZEW has been conducting research at the highest level for 25 years. Alongside this, it also aims to advise, assist and shape economic policy. This combination of excellence and the institute's public orientation is something very special," said Baden-Württemberg Minister for Science Theresia Bauer at the anniversary celebration in Mannheim. Around 300 guests, including friends, patrons and partners of the institute both past and present took up the invitation issued by ZEW's Board of Directors to celebrate a quarter of a century of excellent research and policy advice at ZEW.

China Economic Panel
China | Cyclical indicator | Short-term forecast | Greater China | Business survey | China Economic Panel
 The CEP Indicator has increased by 5.1 points in November 2016 to a current total of 5.0 points.

The latest survey carried out in November (14–30 November 2016) indicates that expectations for the Chinese economy continue to improve. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has increased by 5.1 points to a current total of 5.0 points.

Dates and News
Market design | Leibniz Association | ZEW | Anniversary
In 2016 ZEW celebrates its 25th anniversary.

On 8 December 2016, the Mannheim-based Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) will hold a ceremony to celebrate its 25th anniversary. In 1991 the institute opened its doors with only a small team of employees. Today, 25 years later, ZEW has become one of the leading economic research institutes in Germany and Europe. Though only established relatively recently, the economic research institution has become an unparalleled success.

Comment
Private pension | Public pension system | Pensions policy | Pension finance | Bond Market | Old-age security | Aging population

Yesterday, the federal government published its "Old-Age Security Report 2016". According to the report, it is crucial that people in Germany make additional private retirement provision for old age, since the pension level will decrease significantly in light of the demographic change. This presents particular risks for persons with low incomes. Prof. Dr. Andreas Peichl, head of the Research Group "International Distribution and Redistribution" at the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), argues in favour of a change of system in order to guarantee retirement incomes in the future.

Research
Leibniz Association | Evaluation | ZEW
ZEW in Mannheim city has achieved a rating of very good to excellent as part of a regular external evaluation by the Leibniz Association.

The Mannheim-based Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) has achieved a rating of very good to excellent as part of a regular external evaluation to which all institutions within the Leibniz Association must submit themselves at least once every seven years. On the basis of this result, the Senate of the Leibniz Association has made the decision to recommend further federal and state funding for the institution. In the words of the Senate, "ZEW's work deals with the conditions of many high-functioning markets and institutions in Europe. Using a wide variety of methods, the institute conducts research into current and relevant issues. In doing so, it draws upon, among other things, an impressive bank of empirical data compiled by ZEW itself, which the institute makes accessible through an accredited research data centre. Based on its research results, ZEW is also able to provide comprehensive, high-quality economic policy advising."

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