ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) - Downturn of Economic Sentiment

Economic expectations for Central and Eastern Europe including Turkey (CEE region) have declined in February 2016. In the current survey, the ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for the CEE region has dropped by 14.5 points to a level of minus 9.6 points. Among the individual countries, the indicators for Croatia (down by 11.7 points) and Romania (down by 13.3 points) have seen the largest declines. The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe reflects financial market experts’ expectations for the CEE region on a six-month time horizon. The indicator has been compiled on a monthly basis together with further financial market data by the Mannheim Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) with the support of Erste Group Bank, Vienna, since 2007.

The indicator reflecting experts’ assessment of the current economic situation in the CEE region has remained largely stable at a level of minus 4.8 points (up from previous month by 0.4 points).

Survey Procedure and Methodology

The Financial Market Survey CEE is a survey carried out among financial market experts by ZEW and Erste Group Bank AG, Vienna. The target of this survey is to develop indicators describing the economic conditions in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as well as in Austria.

The CEE region observed in the survey consists of Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and, since October 2010, Turkey.

The financial experts are surveyed about their assessment of the current business situation, the medium-term prospects of the respective economies and their expectations as to the development of the inflation rate, the short- and long-term interest rates, exchange rates and stock prices on a six-month time horizon. The analysts' assessments reflect the qualitative direction of the estimated changes. The quarterly 'Financial Market Report CEE' contains the results for every Central and Eastern European country in detail.

For further information please contact

Zwetelina Iliewa, Phone +49 (0)621/1235-346, E-mail iliewa@zew.de