Abstract:We ask whether fund managers use private information about forthcoming macroeconomic announcements in their asset allocation decisions and whether those that more aggressively use this information outperform those that do not. We present the first evidence that fund managers possess and actively use private information about forthcoming macroeconomic announcements. Specifically, the net asset values (NAVs) of hybrid funds respond strongly to the surprises in macroeconomic announcements and there is a distinct asymmetry in the response to positive and negative surprises. More important, the average fund manager engages in significant reallocation across asset classes in the two days before and partly reverses his trades in the two days after a large number of announcements. Further, managers that hold a greater proportion of their funds in stocks and make greater efforts to time the stock market using private information about the macroeconomic announcements earn over 400 basis points higher return per year. The opposite holds for those that hold more cash. Finally, funds that more aggressively attempt to time the market using private information tend to have higher turnover and expense ratios, which are related to a greater marginal product.



Boyce D. Watkins

Whitman School of Management, Syracuse University


02.08.2006 | 16:00 - 17:30


ZEW, L 7,1 D-68161 Mannheim




Senior Researcher