Determinants of East-West Migration in Germany: A Macroeconometric Analysis

"This research work explicitly analyses the determinants of East-Westmigration in Germany using a macroeconometric panel data model and applyingpair-wise gross migration rates between the respective eastern and westernGerman federal states for the period 1991 - 2007.The results of the estimations conducted on gross migration rates East-Westcan be summarised as follows. The regional income difference as well asseparately integrated income variables for both regions can be identified as highly significant explanatory variables explaining gross migration rates from the eastern to the western part. Regional differentials in theemployment and labour market situation also act as important explanatoryfactors. Furthermore, a pro-cyclical dependency of migration can be confirmed in all estimated model specifications. Theory predicts a positiverelationship between the level of qualification of individuals and thesubsequent migration. This, too, can be indirectly confirmed with theanalysed panel data set. Whereas increasing rents in the east act as apush-factor for East-West German migration, rising regional infrastructuraldifferences seem to draw people towards the west. Distance as anapproximation for migration costs shows the expected negative sign in allmodel specifications."