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Searched for Economic forecast.
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Displaying results 1 to 10 of 465.
Found 465 results.
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Publications // 05.11.2024
ng survey of financial market experts and professional forecasters in Germany. The FMT is well-known for producing the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment, one of the most important indicators for the [...] This policy brief analyses German professional forecasters’ views on the upcoming US presidential election in November 2024 and its impact on the German economy. Our analysis is based on recent data [...] conditional on several events that may affect the election outcome. Next, we elicited scenario-based forecasts for German GDP growth and inflation over the upcoming president’s tenure, depending on whether
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Publications // 21.10.2024
ng survey of financial market experts and professional forecasters in Germany. The FMT is well-known for producing the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment, one of the most important indicators for the [...] This policy brief analyses German professional forecasters’ views on the upcoming US presidential election in November 2024 and its impact on the German economy. Depending on its outcome, the election [...] conditional on several events that may affect the election outcome. Next, we elicited scenario-based forecasts for German GDP growth and inflation over the upcoming president’s tenure, depending on whether
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News // 20.08.2024Despite signs of an economic recovery in the eurozone during the first half of 2024, economic experts are not adjusting their GDP forecasts. The slight revision of growth expectations might be influenced [...] and second quarters of 2024, adding to the signs of an economic recovery. However, this development is not yet reflected in the experts’ GDP forecasts. As in the previous month, they continue to predict a [...] growth is expected to reach 1.4 per cent, 0.1 percentage points lower than in July. The range of forecasts remains at 0.9 percentage points. Factors such as the potential escalation of the conflict in the
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News // 23.07.2024Germany in the first quarter of 2024, economic experts expect growth to remain subdued. The ECB’s interest rate cut in June 2024 did not lead to a more optimistic GDP forecast. In 2025, moderate growth is still [...] comparatively high level of agreement among the respondents regarding the forecast horizon. At 1.1 per cent, the 2025 growth forecast is 0.1 percentage points below the previous month’s value but still above [...] the ECB’s monetary policy decisions. Inflation rates are expected to stabilise in 2024, while the forecast for 2025 remains unchanged. Growth expectations for the eurozone have improved slightly for 2024
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Publications // 10.07.2024
further interest rate decisions. In this policy brief, we analyse whether and how much professional forecasters and market analysts disagree on the nature and speed of future interest rate decisions by the ECB [...] ECB. We also consider the role of uncertain dynamics of future inflation and the economic recovery in the euro area to explain the dispersion of interest rate expectations. For this purpose, we asked the
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News // 21.05.2024Despite positive economic growth in the first quarter of 2024, experts are not currently expecting the German economy to begin recovering more quickly. A more comprehensive recovery is forecast for 2025 at [...] at the earliest. The situation in the wider eurozone is similar. Signs of economic recovery are increasing, but a stronger growth period is not expected to occur until 2025. In both regions, inflation rates [...] prolonged recession seems to have been averted for now. This good news is not yet reflected in experts’ forecasts, however. For the current year, they predict a 0.1 per cent increase in German GDP. Therefore, the
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News // 27.05.2024The economic expectations for 2024 are unfavourable: in its annual economic report, the German government predicts economic growth of just 0.2 per cent; the latest joint forecast by German economic research [...] factors. - Debating location instead of economic cycle Although the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment, which reflects the assessment of financial market experts on economic development, rose for the eighth [...] per cent. Against this backdrop, however, it would be misguided to remain mired in a debate about economic development. The drop in inflation and the ECB’s expected interest rate cuts will stimulate consumption
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News // 23.04.2024relative consensus among experts regarding economic growth in 2024 and 2025. As in the previous months, European foreign trade is viewed as the main driver of the economic recovery in 2025, with growth expectations [...] Business cycle experts expect to see an economic recovery in the eurozone in 2024 and especially in 2025. At the same time, inflation rates show a downward trend. In contrast, Germany is seeing negative [...] negative trends in quarterly growth figures, with pessimistic forecasts for 2024. These are the results of the business cycle tableaus by ZEW Mannheim and the German daily newspaper, Börsen-Zeitung. - The quarterly
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News // 27.03.20242025 growth forecast holds steady at 1.2 per cent, markedly higher than the projection for 2024. Notably, the outlook for capital investments is much more pessimistic, dropping from a forecasted 1.7 per cent [...] some challenges, the long-term growth pace will be maintained in both regions, leading to overall economic stabilisation. These are the results of the business cycle tableaus by ZEW Mannheim and the German [...] cent growth in the previous month to now 1.1 per cent. In contrast, import forecasts for 2025 show a slight uptick, rising by 0.2 percentage points to 2.9 per cent.
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News // 21.02.2024Business cycle experts are forecasting a moderately positive economic development for the eurozone in 2024, with more optimistic prospects for the coming years. Projections for Germany in 2024 are slightly [...] some challenges, the long-term growth pace in both regions will be maintained, leading to overall economic stabilisation. These are the results of the business cycle tableaus by ZEW Mannheim and the German