The ZEW Financial Market Survey has been carried out on a monthly basis since December 1991. It reveals the financial market’s expectations on the development of important international economies. Currently these are Germany, the euro area, the United States of America as well as China.
The panel of participants consists of about 350 analysts from banks, insurance companies and large industrial corporations. These analysts work in the respective companies’ departments of finance, research, and macroeconomics, as well as in the departments of investment and securities. The majority of the analysts is from Germany.
The analysts are asked about their expectations on a six-month horizon in the following specific areas: trend in economic activity, inflation rate, short-term and long-term interest rates, stock indices and exchange rates. Furthermore, financial market experts are to assess the profit situation of 13 German industry branches. The survey consists of two parts: one fixed survey part and special surveys on current issues.
The experts’ expectations on the future economic development in Germany serve as a basis to calculate the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment. This leading indicator for the economic trend (ZEW Index) is followed closely by the public. Moreover, ZEW communicates the survey’s detailed results in the monthly “ZEW Financial Market Report”.
Further information on the ZEW Financial Market Test is available here
An overview of academic papers using data from the financial market survey is availablehere
Selected Publications
Articles in Refereed Journals
Deaves, Richard, Michael Schröder, Adam Stivers and Ming Tsang (2021), Do economic forecasters believe the stock market is efficient? Evidence from Germany, Applied Finance Letters 10, 40-47. Download
Seip, Knut, Yunus Yilmas and Michael Schröder (2019), Comparing sentiment and behavioral based leading indexes for industrial production: When does each fail?, Economies - Open Access Journal 7 (4). Download
Deaves, Richard, Jin Lei and Michael Schröder (2019), Forecaster Overconfidence and Market Survey Performance, Journal of Behavioral Finance 20 (2), 173-194. Download
Mokinski, Frieder, Xuguang (Simon) Sheng and Jingyun Yang (2015), Measuring Disagreement in Qualitative Expectations, Journal of Forecasting DOI: 10.1002/for.2340.
Dick, Christian and Lukas Menkhoff (2013), Exchange Rate Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 37 (7), 1362-1383.
Schmidt, Sandra and Dieter Nautz (2012), Central Bank Communication and the Perception of Monetary Policy by Financial Market Experts, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 44, 323-340.
Schmeling, Mail and Andreas Schrimpf (2011), Expected Inflation, Expected Stock Returns, and Money Illusions: What can we learn form Survey Expectations?, European Economic Review 55, 702-719.
Deaves, Richard, Erik Lüders and Michael Schröder (2010), The Dynamics of Overconfidence: Evidence from Stock Market Forecasters, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 75, 402-412.
Menkhoff, Lukas, Rafael Rebitzky and Michael Schröder (2009), Heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations: evidence on the chartist-fundamentalist approach, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 70, 241-252.
Ullrich, Katrin (2008), Inflation Expectations of Experts and ECB Communication, North American Journal of Economics and Finance 19 (1), 93-108.
Menkhoff, Lukas, Rafael Rebitzky and Michael Schröder (2008), Do Dollar Forecasters Believe too Much in PPP?, Applied Economics 40, 261-270.
Heinemann, Friedrich and Katrin Ullrich (2006), The Impact of EMU on Inflation Expectations, Open Economies Review 17, 175-195.
Schröder, Michael and Martin Schüler (2006), Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf die Kapitalmärkte, Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik Bd. 7, Heft 1, 43-66.
Franz, Wolfgang (2005), Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand Up?, German Economic Review, Vol. 6, Issue 2, 131-153.
Hüfner, Felix and Michael Schröder (2002), Prognosegehalt von ifo-Geschäftserwartungen und ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen: Ein ökonometrischer Vergleich, Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik Vol. 222/3, 316-336.
Schröder, Michael and Robert Dornau (2001), Do Forecasters use Monetary Models? An Empirical Analysis of Exchange Rate Expectations, Applied Financial Economics 12, 535-543.
Articles in Non-Refereed Journals
Meitner, Matthias, Felix Hüfner, Volker Kleff, Erik Lehmann and Erik Lüders (2002), Bilanzskandale und Börsencrash: Neue Herausforderungen an die Aktienanalyse, Finanz-Betrieb 09/2002, 537-540.
Meitner, Matthias, Felix Hüfner and Volker Kleff (2002), Enron: Wirtschaftsprüfer, Bilanzierungsvorschriften und der deutsche Aktienmarkt, KoR - Kapitalmarktorientierte Rechnungslegung 3/2002, 139-141.
Monographs, Contributions to Edited Volumes
König, Heinz, Robert Dornau and Michael Schröder (1999), Über den Zusammenhang von Finanzmarkterwartungen: USA und Deutschland, in: Nölling, Schachtschneider, Starbatty Stuttgart, 295-309.
König, Heinz, Timm Körting and Ulrich Anders (1998), Zur Bildung von Wechselkurserwartungen - Eine Untersuchung auf der Grundlage des ZEW-Finanzmarkttests, in: Wirtschaftswissenschaften, LLL:citation.label.volume 38, Campus-Verlag.
Marnet, V. (1996), Eigenschaften und Bestimmungsfaktoren von Finanzmarkterwartungen, LLL:citation.label.volume 13, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, Baden-Baden.
Discussion and Working Papers
Brückbauer, Frank (2020), Do Financial Market Experts Know Their Theory? New Evidence From Survey Data, ZEW Discussion Paper No. 20-092, Mannheim. Download
Schmidt, Sandra and Dieter Nautz (2010), Why Do Financial Market Experts Misperceive Future Monetary Policy Decisions?, ZEW Discussion Paper No. 10-045, Mannheim. Download
Köhler, Matthias and Gunnar Lang (2008), Trends im Retail-Banking: Die Bankfiliale der Zukunft, ZEW Documentation LLL:citation.label.number 08-01, Mannheim. Download
Lahl, David and Felix Hüfner (2003), What Determines the ZEW Indicator?, ZEW Discussion Paper No. 03-48, Mannheim. Download
Anders, U., R. Dornau and Andrea Szczesny (1997), G-Mind - German Market Indicator. Analyse des Stimmungsindikators und seine Subkomponenten, ZEW Documentation LLL:citation.label.number 97-04, Mannheim. Download
Anders, U. (1995), G-Mind - German Market Indikator: Konstruktion eines Stimmungsbarometers für den deutschen Finanzmarkt, ZEW Documentation LLL:citation.label.number 95-04, Mannheim. Download
Project duration
01.12.1991 - 31.12.2030
Contact
Project members
Dr. Michael Schröder
(Coordinator)
Frank Brückbauer
Peter Buchmann
Thibault Cézanne
