The ZEW Financial Market Survey has been carried out on a monthly basis since December 1991. It reveals the financial market’s expectations on the development of important international economies. Currently these are Germany, the euro area, the United States of America as well as China.
The panel of participants consists of about 350 analysts from banks, insurance companies and large industrial corporations. These analysts work in the respective companies’ departments of finance, research, and macroeconomics, as well as in the departments of investment and securities. The majority of the analysts is from Germany.
The analysts are asked about their expectations on a six-month horizon in the following specific areas: trend in economic activity, inflation rate, short-term and long-term interest rates, stock indices and exchange rates. Furthermore, financial market experts are to assess the profit situation of 13 German industry branches. The survey consists of two parts: one fixed survey part and special surveys on current issues.
The experts’ expectations on the future economic development in Germany serve as a basis to calculate the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment. This leading indicator for the economic trend (ZEW Index) is followed closely by the public. Moreover, ZEW communicates the survey’s detailed results in the monthly “ZEW Financial Market Report”.
Further information on the ZEW Financial Market Test is available here
An overview of academic papers using data from the financial market survey is availablehere
Articles in Refereed Journals
Deaves, Richard, Jin Lei and Michael Schröder (2019), Forecaster Overconfidence and Market Survey Performance, Journal of Behavioral Finance 20 (2), 173-194. Download
Mokinski, Frieder, Xuguang (Simon) Sheng and Jingyun Yang (2015), Measuring Disagreement in Qualitative Expectations, Journal of Forecasting DOI: 10.1002/for.2340.
Deaves, Richard, Erik Lüders and Michael Schröder (2010), The Dynamics of Overconfidence: Evidence from Stock Market Forecasters, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 75, 402-412.
Menkhoff, Lukas, Rafael Rebitzky and Michael Schröder (2009), Heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations: evidence on the chartist-fundamentalist approach, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 70, 241-252.
Hüfner, Felix and Michael Schröder (2002), Prognosegehalt von ifo-Geschäftserwartungen und ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen: Ein ökonometrischer Vergleich, Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik Vol. 222/3, 316-336.
Schröder, Michael and Robert Dornau (2001), Do Forecasters use Monetary Models? An Empirical Analysis of Exchange Rate Expectations, Applied Financial Economics 12, 535-543.
Monographs, Contributions to Edited Volumes
König, Heinz, Robert Dornau and Michael Schröder (1999), Über den Zusammenhang von Finanzmarkterwartungen: USA und Deutschland, in: Nölling, Schachtschneider, Starbatty Stuttgart, 295-309.
König, Heinz, Timm Körting and Ulrich Anders (1998), Zur Bildung von Wechselkurserwartungen - Eine Untersuchung auf der Grundlage des ZEW-Finanzmarkttests, in: Wirtschaftswissenschaften, LLL:citation.label.volume 38, Campus-Verlag.