The ZEW Financial Market Survey has been carried out on a monthly basis since December 1991. It reveals the German financial market’s expectations on the development of six important international financial markets. 350 analysts from banks, insurance companies and large industrial corporations regularly take part in the survey. These analysts work in the respective companies’ departments of finance, research, and macroeconomics, as well as in the departments of investment and securities. The analysts are asked about their expectations on a six-month horizon in specific areas: trend in economic activity, inflation rate, short-term and long-term interest rates, share prices and exchange rates. The financial markets concerned are those of Germany, the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and the Euro zone. Furthermore, financial market experts are to assess the profit situation of 13 German industry branches. The survey consists of two parts: one fixed survey part and special surveys on current issues. The experts’ expectations on the future economic development in Germany serve as a basis to calculate the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment. This leading indicator for the economic trend (ZEW Index) is followed closely by the public. Moreover, ZEW communicates the survey’s detailed results in the monthly “ZEW Financial Market Report”.

Further information on the ZEW Financial Market Test is available http://www.zew.de/de/publikationen/Konjunkturerwartungen/Liste_der_Veroeffentlichungen.pdfhere

An overview of academic papers using data from the financial market survey is availablehere

Selected Publications

Articles in Refereed Journals

Deaves, Richard, Jin Lei and Michael Schröder (2019), Forecaster Overconfidence and Market Survey Performance, Journal of Behavioral Finance 20 (2), 173-194. Download

Mokinski, Frieder, Xuguang (Simon) Sheng and Jingyun Yang (2015), Measuring Disagreement in Qualitative Expectations, Journal of Forecasting DOI: 10.1002/for.2340.

Deaves, Richard, Erik Lüders and Michael Schröder (2010), The Dynamics of Overconfidence: Evidence from Stock Market Forecasters, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 75, 402-412.

Menkhoff, Lukas, Rafael Rebitzky and Michael Schröder (2009), Heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations: evidence on the chartist-fundamentalist approach, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 70, 241-252.

Menkhoff, Lukas, Rafael Rebitzky and Michael Schröder (2008), Do Dollar Forecasters Believe too Much in PPP?, Applied Economics 40, 261-270.

Monographs, Contributions to Edited Volumes

König, Heinz, Robert Dornau and Michael Schröder (1999), Über den Zusammenhang von Finanzmarkterwartungen: USA und Deutschland, in: Nölling, Schachtschneider, Starbatty Stuttgart, 295-309.