On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Labour (BMWA), this pilot study develops a research plan to evaluate those labour market policy measures which have been implemented on the recommendation of the Hartz-Commission. Especially the following measures are considered:
· Merging of two different types of benefits for the unemployed (unemployment benefit and income support)
· Publicly subsidised temping agencies ("Personalserviceagenturen") and temporary work
· Changes in labour lending
· Self-employment subsidies ("Ich-AGs") and subsidisation of early retirement ("Brückengeld")
· "Mini"- and "Midi-jobs" (short-time employment, "Mini-job": tax-free for a salary up to 400 €, "Midi-job": partly tax-free for a salary between 400 € and 800 €), employment in private households
· Early compulsory registration and tightening of reasonableness-regulations
· Differentiated regulation of blocking-time in case of job-refusal, shifting of the burden of proof
· Redirection of public promotion of professional training
· Low interest loans to medium-sized companies if they hire unemployed persons ("Kapital für Arbeit"), labour cost grants
· Implementation of wage subsidies and modification of legal employment protection for elderly
· Reform of public work creation schemes ("ABM" and "SAM")
There are basically five methods of evaluation: microevaluation, microsimulation, macroevaluation, computable general equilibrium models as well as implementation analysis.
A microsimulation simulates changes in the tax-transfer-system caused by the reform for different types of households. With given gross monthly income these changes result in modified net household incomes compared to the status quo. These simulations are then used as the base to predict the reform-dependent labour supply and employment effects and to estimate the fiscal costs caused by the reform. Furthermore, a reform's distributional effects can be investigated for different household types. Microsimulations are especially appropriate for partial analytical examinations of (smaller) reform interventions in the tax-transfer-system. (e.g. Mini-jobs).
The success of a reform-measure for the group of participants is estimated by microeconometric evaluation studies. For that, a group of non-participants as similar as possible is generated to estimate the employment situation of participants in the hypothetical case of non-participation.
Given that the employment opportunities of non-participants are indirectly influenced by the implementation of the measures resulting from the Hartz-proposals (through e.g. substitution effects), a macroeconometric evaluation may be required. Such an evaluation estimates the net-effect of the measures with regard to macro-indicators like e.g. underemployment. Macroeconometric evaluation methods are only applicable, if the implementation of the measures varies over time or in regions.
If this is not the case (e.g. earnings-related benefit regulations), supplementary simulation calculations based on computable general equilibrium models can be employed.
Furthermore, every single measure is reviewed to see whether an implementation analysis is reasonable. This includes the examination of the implementation in practice and the monitoring of the measures by the employment offices.
The aim of the pilot study is to identify the appropriate method(s) for every implemented measure. One important selection criteria in doing so is the availability of data. The presentation of the research methods accounts for the principle of Gender Mainstreaming.
15.08.2003 - 07.11.2003
Gesellschaft für Sozialforschung und Marktforschung mbH, München, DE
Prof. Dr. Reinhard Hujer, Johann Wolfgang Goethe Universität Frankfurt am Main, Frankfurt am Main, DE
Prof. Bernd Fitzenberger Ph. D., ZEW und Johann Wolfgang Goethe Universität Frankfurt am Main, Frankfurt am Main