Recent years have seen to an increasing socio-political discussion on the dangers of old-age poverty. This expected trend is most importantly driven by pension reforms implemented in previous years and developments within the labour market (i.e. discontinuous work histories, unemployment, low wages, and employment exempt from social insurance). Given that in the next years pension levels will continuously decrease as a consequence of pension reforms, private provision will become a more important factor for ensuring income maintenance at an advanced age. From a socio-political point of view, this development raises the question whether there is an accumulated risk of old-age poverty for specific groups (e.g. low-skilled workers, single/divorced women, long-term unemployed, self-employed). However, until now there is a lack of scientific studies based on realistic assumptions and utilizing forward projection to calculate the income mixture at an advanced age, and hence the risk of old-age poverty. Consequently, the aim of this research project is:
1.    To quantify the risk of old-age poverty for individuals born between 1949 and 1970 and to empirically identify respective risk factors for old-age poverty.
2.    Evaluate the distributional effects of potential reform options based on the results of the forward projections and current political discussions.


Bertelsmann Stiftung , Gütersloh , DE

Project duration

01.10.2016 - 31.03.2017


Cooperation partner

Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin, DE