The aim of this project is to develop and provide an academic foundation for a so-called disagreement indicator based on micro data from the ZEW Financial Market Survey. A disagreement indicator depicts the degree of disagreement among a group of people (here: German financial market experts) regarding future developments (here: the development of the German financial market). In a first step, we will test a disagreement indicator’s ability to predict stock market developments. We will then identify those economic phenomena depicted by the disagreement indicator.