The task of the ZEW as part of this sub-commissioned project was to deliver comprehensive information on energy policy in Germany as required for the envisioned scenario projections by the project underwriter. To this end the following categories were comprised:

  • deregulatory trends;
  • market potentials of renewable energies;
  • the structure of energy demand for various economic sectors;
  • projections of future national demand.

Moreover, the framework for the scenario projections were discussed with the project underwriter, resulting in four distinct variations:
1) Business-as-Usual, i.e. no change among existing patterns
2) Industrial Regulatory Policy, i.e. the promotion of certain renewables technologies
3) Pro-Renewables, i.e. a setup prioritising renewable energy sources
4) Internalisation, i.e. assuming complete internalisation of external costs.

For the year 2020 the following output scenarios were calculated, with 4) Internalisation being predicted at 235 TWh for renewables, 2) Industrial Regulatory Policy only slightly below at 220 TWh, and Business-as-Usual fairing worst at merely half of the amounts calculated otherwise (115 TWh). Results for 3) Pro-Renewables were not available at the conclusion of the ZEW involvement as part of the sub-commission


Europäische Kommission, Generaldirektion Energie und Verkehr , Brüssel , BE

Project duration

01.12.1995 - 31.12.1996

Project members

Dr. Wolfgang Bräuer (Coordinator)

Cooperation partner

Energy for Sustainable Development, Bath, UK