Latest Press Releases

Expectations for the Chinese business cycle have once again worsened in the current survey period (15/02/2016 – 02/03/2016). Falling to a level of minus 25.7 points, the CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has reached the lowest value recorded since the survey was begun in mid-2013.

Read more

Expectations for the Chinese business cycle have worsened dramatically in January 2016. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has deteriorated significantly in the current survey period (18/01/2016-03/02/2016), falling to a level of minus 20.7 points. This is by far the lowest value recorded since the survey was begun in mid-2013.

Read more

Forecasts for the Chinese economy have further cooled down at the turn of the year. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts in regard to China's macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has deteriorated in the current survey period (12/25/15-01/11/16), falling to minus 4.5 points. The CEP Indicator has thus almost returned to its all-time low of minus 9.7 points from September 2015.

Read more

Expectations for the Chinese economy have once again considerably worsened in November 2015. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has deteriorated in the current survey period (November 9 – 25, 2015) to a value of minus 1.7 points. On the whole, expectations for the Chinese economy show signs of increased uncertainty. This is reflected in the indicator's volatility over the last few months; in September the CEP indicator had a value of minus 9.7 points, it returned to positive territory in October, achieving a value of 8.3 points, before falling once again to minus 1.7 points in November.

Read more

Economic expectations in China have returned to positive territory in October 2015. Following several months characterised by a downward trend, the CEP Indicator has stabilised in the current survey period (October 12-28, 2015), rising from minus 9.7 points to 8.3 points. The CEP Indicator reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China's macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months. The current GDP forecast for 2015 is 6.9 per cent, a month-on-month increase of 0.1 per cent. Experts continue to expect a GDP growth of 6.6 per cent in 2016.

Read more

The outlook for further economic development in China remains negative in September 2015. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China's macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has deteriorated significantly in the current survey period (14/09 - 28/09/2015), falling from minus 6.0 to minus 9.7 points. The GDP forecasts for 2015 total 6.8 per cent, whilst these fall to 6.6 per cent for 2016.

Read more

The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has deteriorated significantly in the current survey period (August 17-31, 2015). It has dropped from 8.8 to minus 6.0 points. Interestingly, the change in sentiment is not yet reflected in GDP forecasts. The growth figures of 6.9 per cent for 2015 and 6.7 per cent for 2016 are strikingly similar to the forecasts provided by the government. Very likely, the estimates included in the CEP Indicator are much more realistic, since there is no government equivalent to this indicator.

Read more

The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China's macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has slightly declined in the current survey period (July 14-30, 2015). The indicator has dropped from 9.0 to 8.8 points compared to the previous month. Expectations for China's economic development in 2015 and 2016 have hardly changed either compared to the June reading. The surveyed experts forecast an average GDP growth of 6.8 per cent in 2015, and a GDP growth of 6.7 per cent in 2016.

Read more

The China Economic Panel Indicator (CEP) has increased slightly by 0.2 points. For the period concerned (08.-30.06.2015), the CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial experts in regard to China's macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, now totals nine points. The indicator therefore remains below its long-term average value of 10.8 points.

Read more

Despite slight gains, the macroeconomic outlook for China remains cautious. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the pooled individual expectations of international financial experts with regard to China's business cycle development in the upcoming twelve months, stands at 8.8 points in the current survey period (11 to 26 May 2015). This is a 6.2 point increase compared to the previous month. The indicator's long-term average is 10.9 points. The assessment of the current macroeconomic situation in China has hardly changed compared to the previous month: the respective balance of positive and negative assessments has decreased by 0.3 points to minus 10.6 points.

Read more