Latest Press Releases

Expectations for the Chinese business cycle have slightly worsened in the current survey period (23/05/2016 – 07/06/2016). The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has dropped by 5.3 points to a current reading of 4.1 points.

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Expectations regarding the development of the Chinese economy have slightly improved in the current survey period (19/04 – 03/05/2016). Rising to a level of 9.4 points, the CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has exceeded its long-term average of 6.2 points for the first time in many months.

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The economic policy plans and objectives of the new five-year plan of the Chinese government, have boosted expectations for the Chinese economy. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has risen sharply in the current survey period (03/21/2016 – 04/06/2016), climbing from minus 25.7 points to a level of 3.5 points.

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Expectations for the Chinese business cycle have once again worsened in the current survey period (15/02/2016 – 02/03/2016). Falling to a level of minus 25.7 points, the CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has reached the lowest value recorded since the survey was begun in mid-2013.

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Expectations for the Chinese business cycle have worsened dramatically in January 2016. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has deteriorated significantly in the current survey period (18/01/2016-03/02/2016), falling to a level of minus 20.7 points. This is by far the lowest value recorded since the survey was begun in mid-2013.

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Forecasts for the Chinese economy have further cooled down at the turn of the year. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts in regard to China's macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has deteriorated in the current survey period (12/25/15-01/11/16), falling to minus 4.5 points. The CEP Indicator has thus almost returned to its all-time low of minus 9.7 points from September 2015.

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Expectations for the Chinese economy have once again considerably worsened in November 2015. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has deteriorated in the current survey period (November 9 – 25, 2015) to a value of minus 1.7 points. On the whole, expectations for the Chinese economy show signs of increased uncertainty. This is reflected in the indicator's volatility over the last few months; in September the CEP indicator had a value of minus 9.7 points, it returned to positive territory in October, achieving a value of 8.3 points, before falling once again to minus 1.7 points in November.

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Economic expectations in China have returned to positive territory in October 2015. Following several months characterised by a downward trend, the CEP Indicator has stabilised in the current survey period (October 12-28, 2015), rising from minus 9.7 points to 8.3 points. The CEP Indicator reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China's macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months. The current GDP forecast for 2015 is 6.9 per cent, a month-on-month increase of 0.1 per cent. Experts continue to expect a GDP growth of 6.6 per cent in 2016.

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The outlook for further economic development in China remains negative in September 2015. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China's macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has deteriorated significantly in the current survey period (14/09 - 28/09/2015), falling from minus 6.0 to minus 9.7 points. The GDP forecasts for 2015 total 6.8 per cent, whilst these fall to 6.6 per cent for 2016.

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The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has deteriorated significantly in the current survey period (August 17-31, 2015). It has dropped from 8.8 to minus 6.0 points. Interestingly, the change in sentiment is not yet reflected in GDP forecasts. The growth figures of 6.9 per cent for 2015 and 6.7 per cent for 2016 are strikingly similar to the forecasts provided by the government. Very likely, the estimates included in the CEP Indicator are much more realistic, since there is no government equivalent to this indicator.

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