Latest Press Releases

According to the most recent survey for June (5–19 June 2019), the economic outlook for China has decreased by 9.5 points to a reading of minus 7.8 points. The indicator thus finds itself once again in negative territory (May 2019: 1.7 points). The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has thus been experiencing an almost uninterrupted series of negative readings since April 2018. May 2019 was the only month in which the indicator moved into slightly positive territory for a short period of time.

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According to the most recent survey for May (2–16 May 2019), the economic outlook for China has continued to improve. The CEP Indicator, which  which is based on the China Economic Panel and reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, is currently at 1.7 points (April 2019: minus 11.9 points). For the first time since March 2018, the CEP indicator has thus returned to positive territory and almost lies level with its long-term average of 1.8 points. 

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According to the most recent survey for April (3–17 April 2019), the economic outlook for China has improved again. The CEP Indicator, which is based on the China Economic Panel and reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, is currently at minus 11.9 points, 13.1 points higher compared to the March survey. Despite this improvement, the indicator remains below its long-term average of 1.8 points and has been doing so for 13 months now. The assessment of the current economic situation has also improved, leaving the index at a level of minus 7.2 points, 6.7 points higher than in the previous month.

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According to the most recent survey for March (6–21 March 2019), the expectations regarding the Chinese economy have decreased significantly by 11.5 points. The CEP Indicator, which is based on the China Economic Panel and reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, is currently at minus 25.0 points (February 2019: minus 13.5 points). This marks the twelfth month in a row that the CEP indicator has been below its long-term average.

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According to the most recent survey for February (6–21 February 2019), the expectations regarding the Chinese economy have risen by 4.8 points to a reading of minus 13.5 points (January 2019: minus 18.3 points). Despite this renewed increase, the CEP Indicator, which is based on the China Economic Panel and reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, is still in negative territory and remains well below the long-term average of 2.4 points.

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In the most recent survey for January (9–24 January 2019), expectations regarding the Chinese economy have risen by 2.2 points, to a new reading of minus 18.3 points (December 2018: minus 20.5 points). Despite the renewed increase, the indicator is still clearly in negative territory and remains well below the long-term average of 2.7 points. This sees the CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, pointing to a prolonged period of economic weakness.

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Expectations regarding the Chinese economy improved in the most recent survey for December (28/11/2018 –13/12/2018). With a current reading of minus 20.5 points, the CEP indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, remains, however, clearly in negative territory. Despite its most recent increase of 9.5 points compared to the previous month (November 2018: minus 30.0 points), the indicator continues to signal an economic downturn. The indicator has thus remained well below the long-term average of 3.0 points, which has not been exceeded since March 2018.

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In the most recent survey for November (31/10/2018–14/11/2018), expectations regarding the Chinese economy have taken a nosedive. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has fallen 28 points to a current reading of minus 30.0 points (October 2018: minus 2.0 points). This is the lowest reading since the survey was begun in mid-2013. The indicator is thus once again well below the long-term average of 3.4 points.

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In 2019, the CEP Indicator will be released on the following dates at 10:00 a.m. Frankfurt Time.

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In the most recent survey for October (02/10/2018–17/10/2018), expectations regarding the Chinese economy rose again. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has climbed 14 points to a current reading of minus 2.0 points (September 2018: minus 16.0 points). The indicator thus still remains well below the long-term average of 3.9 points. Falling 5.7 points to a level of minus 3.9 points, the assessment of the current economic situation in China was more negative than the previous month.

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