Latest Press Releases

Emerging European countries are less able to participate in global trade since correspondent banks are on the decline. The reason for this decline is that US authorities have tightened financial crime enforcement regulations. The lack of banks offering trade finance services and handling international transactions between exporters and importers makes trade with and for these countries much more difficult. This is shown in a recent study by ZEW Mannheim based on data from 17 Eastern European emerging markets, the so-called Emerging Europe.

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The pandemic has only slightly slowed down the start-up activity in Germany in 2020. According to a joint study by Creditreform and ZEW Mannheim, almost 165,000 new companies were founded last year. However, the development varied greatly depending on the sector. Regardless of the COVID-19 crisis, the number of companies grew slightly last year to nearly 3.3 million. Once again, more companies were founded than closed. The Mannheim Enterprise Panel (MEP), conducted by ZEW, recorded around 156,000 firm closures, for example due to withdrawal from business or insolvency.

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Today, the German government’s Economic Stabilisation Fund (ESF) announced its intention to sell part of the shares it holds in Lufthansa. Professor Achim Wambach, president of ZEW Mannheim and member of the Monopolies Commission, explains:

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With the oil crisis, the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the financial and banking crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic, the past fifty years have seen several economic shocks that often had severe consequences for the business landscape. Governments are often only able to provide targeted support and respond appropriately to such unexpected events with a significant time lag, as appropriate data is usually not available at the beginning of a crisis. AI-based analysis of corporate websites can remedy this situation by complementing traditional survey methods and providing reliable early forecasts in a timely manner. This is shown by studies conducted by ZEW Mannheim in cooperation with Justus Liebig University Giessen during the coronavirus crisis.

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Financial experts are divided over the new strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB). While 49 per cent of those surveyed by ZEW Mannheim say that the change in strategy has prompted them to adjust their medium-term inflation forecast for the years 2021 to 2023 upwards, another 46 per cent say that the new strategy has no influence on their forecast. Five per cent are even inclined to revise their inflation forecast downwards.

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A large number of ZEW survey participants took the opportunity to voluntarily donate part of their expense allowance to the city of Mannheim for urban reforestation initiatives in preparation for the 2023 German National Garden Show (BUGA). A total of 2,809.40 euros was passed on to the “Bundesgartenschau Mannheim 2023 gGmbH”. The money was used to plant four Caucasian wingnuts in the eastern part of the newly emerging Käfertal park bowl in May 2021. Looking at the survey results, it can be seen that the willingness of participants to donate trees is significantly greater than the willingness to voluntarily offset CO2 by retiring certificates from emissions trading.

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The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany decreased in the current August 2021 survey, falling 22.9 points to a new reading of 40.4 points compared to July. This is the third time since May that the indicator has dropped, this time even somewhat stronger than in the previous month. The assessment of the economic situation in Germany improved in August, and currently stands at 29.3 points, 7.4 points higher than in July.

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Soon after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, many companies in Germany expected a long-term expansion of working from home arrangements. A ZEW survey conducted in June 2021 has confirmed the companies’ early forecasts. Some companies have even increased their expectations about the use of working from home after the pandemic ends. The survey also found that many companies, especially larger ones, have equipped their employees with digital devices over the course of the pandemic.

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On 30 July, the European Banking Authority (EBA) published the results of the stress test it carried out on 50 banks in the euro area. Dr. Karolin Kirschenmann, deputy head of the “International Finance and Financial Management” Research Department at ZEW Mannheim, explains:

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The Federal Statistical Office published its preliminary results on the development of the German inflation rate in August 2021. According to the calculations, the inflation rate measured by the German consumer price index has risen to 3.9 per cent, a slight increase compared to 3.8 per cent reported in the previous month. Professor Friedrich Heinemann, head of the Research Department “Corporate Taxation and Public Finance” at ZEW Mannheim, comments on this matter.

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