1. 04.05.2022 · ZEW (fhe)
    Monetary policy decisions | Interest Rate | United States | Central bank
    ZEW economist Friedrich Heinemann comments on the Fed's decision to leave its key interest rates unchanged.

    The US Federal Reserve continues its monetary policy change. The Fed raises its key interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, twice as much as the first rate hike in March, to a current range between 0.75 and 1.0 per cent. In addition, the central bank has announced that it will start reducing its balance sheet in June. Professor Friedrich Heinemann, head of the Research Department “Corporate Taxation and Public Finance” at ZEW Mannheim, has commented on this matter:

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  2. 04.05.2022 · ZEW (kso/deg)

    The EU eastward enlargements represent the largest ever expansion of European labour markets, which have opened up to more than 102 million Eastern Europeans as a result of the EU’s fundamental right to free movement of workers. 18 years after the first enlargement, ZEW economist Dr. Katrin Sommerfeld takes stock in the latest episode of the #ZEWPodcast ‘Wirtschaft · Forschung · Debatten’/‘Economy · Research · Debates’. She also explains how Germany can continue to benefit from Eastern European workers in the future.

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  3. 03.05.2022 · ZEW (sel)
    Electoral law | Youth | Economic Policy | Germany | Voter turnout | Elections
    Picture of a ballot paper at the drop-off.

    Due to demographic change, Germany is increasingly developing into a so-called “gerontocracy”. A reform lowering the voting age to 16 is supposed to counteract this. A recent study by ZEW Mannheim examines the question of whether such a reform is ambitious enough to anchor future-oriented interests more strongly in current politics. The study suggests that lowering the voting age does little to change a central limitation of democracy: If voters care only about their narrow interests, then policies will tend to be strongly shaped by the present and, in this case, an ageing society. Intergenerational altruism among voters should be encouraged and more investments should be made to improve voters’ education about long-term policy challenges.

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  4. 29.04.2022 · ZEW (kso/kgt/sel)
    Eastern Europeans | Labour Market | Germany | Skills shortage
    ZEW Expert Brief on Current Labor Market Changes in Germany.

    Germany heavily depends on workers from other EU countries. As a result of the EU’s free movement of workers, the number of immigrant workers has more than quadrupled: in 2020, 1.3 million Eastern Europeans were working in Germany subject to social insurance contributions. Mainly, they worked in the postal and warehousing sectors, as drivers and in cleaning. Most of them pay into the German social security system, while employment as mini-jobbers and postings play an increasingly minor role among Eastern Europeans. In addition, Eastern Europeans work disproportionately often in occupational fields with a shortage of skilled workers, which is why they tend to contribute to relieving the tight German labour market. This is the result of a recent expert brief by ZEW Mannheim, which looks at the consequences of the free movement of workers from Central and Eastern Europe for the German labour market.

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  5. 28.04.2022 · ZEW (fhe)
    Inflation | Consumer Price Index | Statistical office
    Image of the ZEW economist Friedrich Heinemann.

    The Federal Statistical Office published its preliminary results on the development of the German inflation rate in April 2022. According to the calculations, the inflation rate measured by the German consumer price index recorded a slight increase to 7.4 per cent. Professor Friedrich Heinemann, head of the Research Department “Corporate Taxation and Public Finance” at ZEW Mannheim, has commented on this matter:

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  6. 21.04.2022 · ZEW (fbr/sel)
    ZEW Financial Market Survey | Russia | Ukraine | Germany | GDP | Short-term forecast | Business Cycle

    German economic growth has stalled – and is expected to proceed at a sluggish pace in the coming years. According to the financial market experts surveyed by ZEW, lower but stable annual growth rates of between 2.0 and 2.5 per cent are anticipated in 2022 to 2024. Several factors will act as a drag on German GDP, including high energy prices, raw material shortages, and supply chain disruptions – as well as the new geopolitical situation that has arisen with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The majority of experts have made downward revisions to their GDP growth forecasts for 2022, 2023 and beyond. With a view to the next five years, individual sectors of the German economy will be affected to varying degrees by geopolitical developments, with the greatest impacts being suffered by vehicle manufacturing, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, steel and non-ferrous metals, and mechanical engineering.

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  7. 13.04.2022 · ZEW (kso/sel)
    Ukraine | Russia | War | Migration policy | Germany
    Photo of a family of four on the road with a suitcase.

    More than 4.6 million Ukrainians have fled the country since the start of the war. As a result of the invasion, more and more people are also fleeing from Russia. Reasons for this range from the restricted freedom of expression, fear of political persecution or being drafted into military service, to poor economic prospects following the unprecedented level of sanctions on Russia. What is different with current Russian migrants fleeing to neighbouring countries compared to Ukrainian migrants, is that there are indications that the economically active population is over-represented among the Russian emigrants. This may include specialists in the IT and other creative sectors of the economy, who have international language skills as well as customers.

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  8. 12.04.2022 · ZEW (msc/fbr/thc/sel)
    ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
    ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment | Business survey | Cyclical indicator | Business cycle research | Short-term forecast | Germany | Europe | ZEW Financial Market Survey
    Graph for the ZEW Index: In April 2022, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany stands at minus 41 points

    The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany recorded a decline in the current April 2022 survey, falling 1.7 points to a new reading of minus 41.0 points. The assessment of the economic situation in Germany has again worsened significantly in the current survey. The corresponding indicator dropped 9.4 points to a level of minus 30.8 points. This is the second time the indicator has recorded a decrease since the start of the war in Ukraine. The expectations and assessments of the economic situation are currently similar to those at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Inflation expectations for Germany have fallen by 43.4 points in the current survey to a new value of 26.8 points.

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  9. 11.04.2022 · ZEW (sgo/sel)
    Start-up dynamism | Firm formation | Bankruptcy | Germany
     Symbol photo of a transparent globe on the image of a mind map.

    Failing with a start-up is usually considered as a valuable experience whose insights will help the founders to be more successful in their next start-up. However, this is a false conclusion, as a recent study by ZEW Mannheim and the Institute for SME Research (ifm) at the University of Mannheim shows. On the contrary, there is an above-average probability that those founders will fail again with future start-ups.

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  10. 05.04.2022 · ZEW (cra/sel)
    Innovation | Innovation activity | Germany | Eco-innovation | Climate Change
    Photo of a light bulb infront of people sitting together.

    Climate change affects firms in Germany in several ways. This triggers not only eco-innovations in firms to mitigate the effects of global warming, but also other innovations, as a recent study by ZEW Mannheim together with the University of Applied Sciences Augsburg shows.

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